Single biggest petrol price increase in South Africa on the cards for November
Just as petrol and diesel prices in South Africa have hit their highest-ever levels, early recovery data from the CEF is already raising the alarm for another R4.60/litre hike in November.
According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the main driver is the continued pressure on global oil prices, which remain above $100 a barrel, and far removed from the $65 a barrel pre-Iran War.
“Combined with rand weakness, this heralds further large fuel price increases for South Africa in November,” she said.
The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF’s) latest price under-recovery on imported petroleum products shows a very large R4.60/litre petrol price increase for next month.
The under-recovery comprises over R4.00/litre on international prices, and around 50c/litre due to rand depreciation.
“The diesel price is now also scheduled to see yet another increase in November, of R2.60/litre, which means the cost of production will see further sharp upwards pressures,” Bishop said.
Diesel prices a key driver of producer inflation in South Africa, with the agriculture and freight industries already flagging higher production costs due to the hikes in effect from 7 October.
Worryingly, Bishop noted that the diesel price has doubled this year, to over R34.00/litre, from R17.00/litre in January.
This is an unprecedented jump, and the largest annual increase on record.
“[This is] a very heavy burden on producers, with no renewed government support yet,” the economist said.
The petrol price has gone up by a third since January this year and is now on its way to doubling, with a near R5.00/litre rise in November.
This would be larger than any petrol price rise so far this year, if it occurs, Bishop said.
These are the early projections from the CEF:
- Petrol 93: increase of R4.29 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R4.58 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.56 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R2.91 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R5.00 per litre
South Africa needs relief
Bishop said that a cut in the general fuel price levy is warranted again, in light of additional potential consumer stress.
This echoes calls that have been sounding since the R30/litre petrol price mark came into view in September.
The economist noted that another massive jump in petrol prices is set to drive CPI inflation over 5.0% y/y and place direct, severe pressure on commuters.
The National Treasury moved to curb a similar impact in April 2026 by cutting fuel levies by R3.00 per litre.
While this has not been completely ruled out, the finance department has tempered expectations.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana noted in September that any further relief of this nature would come at a cost to the budget, which would have to be recovered elsewhere.
The April relief cost over R17 billion, which could be partially recovered from overperformance in commodity exports at the time. Those conditions are not currently present.
That means the burden will fall elsewhere, either through budget cuts that impact growth or through higher borrowing that impacts debt.
Bishop said that, while prospects for November are not good, it is still early in the review period.
The fuel price changes are determined by movements in both the exchange rate and international petroleum product prices the previous month, she said.
The movements over October will determine November’s fuel price outcomes.
“It is still early in October, and as such, the petrol and diesel price changes in November may not prove to be as large as currently being signalled by the CEF, as they are recalculated daily,” she said.
“However, the risk is clear. For South Africa, currently, very large transport cost increases are being signalled down the line again, with the price increases in October already having taken domestic fuel prices to historic highs.”
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