The first three months of 2016 saw growth in the average value of middle-segment homes in the South African residential property market remaining relatively stable at a nominal 5.7% year-on-year.
This is according to the latest data by Absa, which said that low economic and employment growth, rising inflation and higher interest rates are negatively affecting household finances and consumer confidence.
Economic growth is projected at only 0.6% this year, from 1.3% in 2015, with headline consumer price inflation forecast to average short of 7%, up from 4.6% in 2015.
Prime lending and variable mortgage interest rates, currently 10.5% per annum, are expected to rise further to a level of 11% by year-end.
These factors are set to impact the property market in various ways, such as diverging
demand and supply conditions, changing buying patterns, pressure on market activity
and transaction volumes, Absa said.
Looking at the remainder of 2016, the lending firm said that nominal house price growth is forecast to slow down from 6.2% last year to a level of between 4,5% and 5%, with the risk for price growth to be even lower.
Based on the forecasts for nominal house price growth and the headline consumer price inflation rate, real price deflation of around 2% is projected for 2016, it said.
According to Absa, the average nominal value of homes in each of the middle-segment categories was as follows in March 2016:
- Small homes (80m²-140m²): R937,000
- Medium-sized homes (141m²-220 m²): R1,255,000
- Large homes (221m²-400m²): R1,987,000
Using data mined by Absa, BusinessTech looked at the average house prices in South Africa over the past 20 years.
Over the last 20 years, the average house price has gone up by more than R1 million, meaning quite a handsome return over a period it should take you to pay off your bond.
Houses in all three segments have recorded strong growth over the period, with the large cluster showing particularly pleasing growth.
Average house price index 1995 – 2015
|1995||R172 276||R132 113||R173 693||R259 453|
|1996||R178 486||R134 893||R175 895||R261 476|
|1997||R194 435||R144 558||R185 637||R278 092|
|1998||R221 284||R165 898||R205 314||R302 072|
|1999||R232 127||R170 960||R210 310||R306 791|
|2000||R271 863||R199 193||R249 821||R364 232|
|2001||R310 685||R227 061||R287 722||R417 406|
|2002||R358 132||R255 415||R325 909||R493 069|
|2003||R433 969||R308 642||R397 296||R599 293|
|2004||R573 871||R418 858||R536 150||R779 196|
|2005||R704 208||R502 006||R664 226||R976 994|
|2006||R812 026||R580 525||R772 377||R1 122 755|
|2007||R930 113||R646 874||R907 094||R1 319 315|
|2008||R968 282||R684 664||R948 322||R1 387 573|
|2009||R964 832||R667 257||R923 132||R1 388 737|
|2010||R1 036 396||R773 000||R969 916||R1 447 366|
|2011||R1 054 690||R736 845||R985 785||R1 487 690|
|2012||R1 061 273||R702 886||R1 018 147||R1 519 813|
|2013||R1 167 354||R756 232||R1 079 560||R1 673 357|
|2014||R1 276 252||R827 523||R1 160 599||R1 807 320|
|2015||R1 355 401||R867 014||R1 218 727||R1 910 334|