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ANC presidency is a two-horse race

ANC presidency is a two-horse race

Forget Baleka Mbete, Ace Magashula and Zwele Mkhize – a new poll of 26 political analysts believes that the race to be the next president of the ANC – and likely the country – is a two-horse race.

New data released by Bloomberg has revealed that the next leader of South Africa’s ruling ANC is likely to be either Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa.

This is based on a survey on the views of politics professors and lecturers from 10 South African universities, country risk advisers and research-group analysts who were surveyed by Bloomberg on 13 and 14 February 2017.

According to the poll, eleven of 26 analysts believe that former AU chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has an early edge in the battle to take over the helm of the party.

In comparison, ten of the analysts believe current deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa will be the next president of the ANC. Five analysts were undecided.

“I doubt if there will be a third horse,” said Tinyiko Maluleke, a political analyst at the University of Pretoria, who added it was too soon to predict who would win.

“While ANC tradition should dictate that Ramaphosa succeeds Zuma, there is a strong move within the 105-year-old party to appoint its first woman leader,” he said.

The Bloomberg data echoes what has widely become common understanding in South Africa regarding the ANC’s presidential race.

While neither Dlamini-Zuma nor Ramaphosa have officially accepted nominations (a process the ANC is trying to snuff out until it is ready to commence open campaigning), a number of high profile groups such as Cosatu and the ANC Women’s League have been open in support of the two candidates.

Other names have been mentioned, but not with the same conviction as the aforementioned leaders.

These include ANC treasurer Zwele Mkhize (seen as a ‘compromise candidate’) and speaker of the National Assembly Baleka Mbete, who is said to have thrown her lot in with Mpumalanga premier, David Mabuza, according to the EFF.

The EFF and its leader Julius Malema have been outspoken about the ANC’s presidential election process, saying that Mabuza may emerge as a leading candidate. Malema believes that Mabuza is in with the Gupta family and “has the money”, while both Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa are dead ducks in the race.

The DA is preparing to govern

According to insiders from both the ANC and DA, there has been a strong shift in energy in South African politics, with the ruling party stressed and uncertain about its future  – and the main opposition feeling bolder and ready to run the country.

Commentary heard from MPs by the Huffington Post SA during the recent State of the Nation debate in Parliament, indicated that the ANC was very much aware the political change was coming.

The ruling party expressed uncertainty over president Jacob Zuma’s shift for more populist views, while the presidential elections that lay ahead in 2017 were anything but clear.

The DA, meanwhile, is scrambling to educate and train its MPs in preparation to become ministers in 2019. According to murmurings in Parliament, the party expressed slight surprise when it was faced with the possibility it would be entering national government sooner than it expected.

“What we’re now doing is to look at our policies and discussing how to cost them, how to give detail to it and how to make it attractive. There is a very real possibility that we might have to implement some of these sooner than we thought,” a DA MP was quoted as saying.


Read: South Africa’s next president will not come from the ANC: Malema


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  • victory

    If ANC forced her on us ,we gonna divorce them and join EFF or DA

    • Blapartheid Zulu

      When the anc wins again we will say what DA EFF?

    • Brian

      I am hoping you join the DA because I really feel like they are the only realistic hope for SA.

  • Brenden Engelbrecht

    I hope it’s another Zuma. The general public is tired of being Zuma’d. Furthermore many of the ANC traditional supporters do not like the idea of a woman as president.

    This will cost the ANC dearly at the next elections and they just might lose Gauteng. Won’t that be a thing.

    • Aristophanes

      Too dangerous IMHO. While it would be nice if the DA could win Gauteng, the national power would probably still stay with the ANC through the Zulu vote in KZN.There’s absolutely no way the DA are going to win overall in 2019, and if Hotlips Zuma gets in there’ll be more of the same trough-snouting until this country is bled dry. My money is still on Cyril, but if Showerhead manages to convince the ANC to take a woman (in the nicest possible sense of course) maybe the M&G’s suggestion today of Lindiwe Sisulu (not I hasten to add, that Lindiwe Zulu catastrophe with the punchable face) could actually be a good option. I must admit I’ve been reasonably impressed whenever I’ve seen her in action, for an ANC member, anyway.

      • Hennie

        If the total MP’s of the ANC and the EFF is below 60% I’ll be happy. They cannot then scheme together to change the constitution.

        • Brenden Engelbrecht

          The EFF and ANC will not work together. Especially after the last SONA fiasco. EFF will side with the DA.

      • Thabi Nzuza

        The Anc support on Kzn is among too fcyionaludm is rife!

      • Brian

        Nobody thought Trump would win so here is hoping you are wrong about the DA.

        • Aristophanes

          We live in hope. I’m a great believer in ‘constructive pessimism’. You go around saying ‘Nah, no ways it’ll happen’ but if it does, you then say ‘actually, I knew it was going to happen all the time’. Pathetic I know, but I find that too often I open my big mouth and things go wrong.

    • Blapartheid Zulu

      And take the chance of becoming zim? It will take 3 generations to rebuild it at African lightning speed

    • John Phoenix

      South Africa is currently in a hostage situation, if cancer loses jhb, this country and more specifically Pretoria will burn, it’s a case of, if I can’t have it, no one will.

      • Brenden Engelbrecht

        You underestimate how much support they’ve lost on the ground. The ANC will fight it, but once Gauteng is lost I don’t see them ever getting a hold of it again. As with Cape Town, once you see the results slowly the ANC support will further whittle away.

  • Lone Stranger

    I have a pretty good feeling that Dlamini will win, but you never know. I for one hope is is Ramaphosa. He is a racist, but at least he has a head for business. Might just be what we need to turn our economy around from the looming Junk Status.

    • DAVID PEDDLE

      Don’t make the mistake of thinking Ramaphosa is a business type. He has benefited from BEE and being pulled in by big business because of his contacts. His businesses are largely run by whites for him. He is a communist as much as the others are and believes in the 2 Phase revolution to return the country to total black dominance in all aspects. Whites are only possible as the Indians are possible in Kenya Mozambique etc. No political potential at all. Just effectively ‘Gast arbeiders’. One is between the devil and the deep blue sea here I am afraid.

      • Aristophanes

        Bollox, and bollox again. Cyril is a very clever man, despite your obvious hatred of him, for whatever reason (although of course we can guess, can’t we). Back in the days of the NUM negotiations with the mining houses, plus the later Codesa ones with the Nats (particularly), he apparently ran rings around the people on the other side of the table. But of course in Codesa he wasn’t necessarily dealing with the sharpest knives in the drawer. You really do need to stop reading all the conspiracy theory rubbish before commenting. You almost sound like a Chump supporter, and we know how stupid they are.

        • DAVID PEDDLE

          Clearly you have never been involved with trade union negotiations which are less about reason and debate that mindless repetition to wear down the opposition who become if not careful so irritated and upset with the constant repeating of nonsensical or barely comprehensible economics that they often just give up and give in. I attended one meeting where it took 2 days to agree to the agenda which had previously been agreed to! An old communist negotiating tactic if you look by way of example to the Korean war negotiations at Panmunjom which took weeks to decide the shape of the table!

          It is not I who have made these comments so much as the ANC themselves wrt the 2 Phase Revolution. Zuma himself said that only Blacks would be benefited by the land restitution process ie whites, indians and coloureds would not!
          Throwing aggressive comments, innuendos plus unsubstantiated statements at me will not change the facts which you are free to read up on, but I doubt you will, because your political profile is not interested in facts that don’t suit your political style.

          • Aristophanes

            Read this and weep, sunshine. And frankly, for someone as obviously biased as you, to accuse me of ‘throwing aggressive comments, innuendos and unsubstantiated statements’ is as laughable as someone saying Trump is an intellectual. Perhaps take the log out of your own eye first?

            http://www chrisgibbons co za/ramaphosa-perfectly-poised-president/

          • DAVID PEDDLE

            My previous comments stand and I fail to see why I should bother to comment further to an obvious Libturd and Troll.

          • Aristophanes

            Yeah, now it all comes out. You’re just another freaking alt.right neocon that just can’t stand the idea that – OMG, should I even mention it? – a black man might, just might, have an obviously higher intelligence than yours. Frankly, sunshine, it’s tossers like you that caused a lot of the shît in this country – and the States for that matter – in the first place through your attitude and it will be an absolute pleasure to be ignored by a loser like you.

    • John Phoenix

      Ramaphosa = Trump, Mrs Zuma = Hillary. We’re just copying the States, best we can.

  • Brakpanpolisie

    I would have to say neigh to both of them

    • Born-again-Atheist

      Stop horsing around, you need to reign in your comments. O relax, whats with the long face now?

      • Aristophanes

        Please stop that immediately – this is too serious a subject to have any humour attached to it…. and anyway, we’ve been kakking ourselves laughing so much recently with ol’ Showerhead and The Chump carrying on like five year olds, we need a break!

        • bengine

          What else can we do but laugh – shrilly maniacally – after having to deal with the idiot at the reins for so long horse play was inevitable – not to imply we should spur him on on by trotting out weak comments – all we are asking for is a stable economy.

  • Rixxi

    Calling them horses is inviting a charge of racism, surely?

    • Ubaba meet Baba

      You’re right, neither can run, so let’s be honest and call them asses?

      • Blapartheid Zulu

        That would be considered crime against humanity by the anc

  • Mr. H

    anUDDER Zuma?!?

  • Born-again-Atheist

    Much like the US election choices we have on the menu a douche & a turd sandwich.

    • Jibbers Crabst

      IKR, screwed both ways. When will it end? =/

      • Brian

        When they lose power. 2019???

  • Well, at least it’s two horses? The era of lesser species will have passed ?

  • Mike Watkins

    the ANC must be getting desperate, because neither of them are worth their DNA, their skin, no even their aging, to non-existent brain cells. She must have been pretty retarded to marry the current moron, in the first place?

    • Klaus Muller

      For sure, she didn’t marry him for his money, now of course, who knows

  • Mike Watkins

    if its down to horses, then I presume that the Guptas are the “bookies”?
    I thought that it was racist, and intolerant to compare these aging has beens to animals;
    And besides its an out and out insult to the horse kingdom, to compare either of these fools, to that most noble,and useful of animals.
    the mention that the ANCWL supports the candidates is irrelevant; After all they support the current idjit

  • Mike Watkins

    a dynasty of ignorant crooks and slavers is not needed in SA.

  • lorgat94

    Ramphosa will be the better of the two. With so much business interest in the country he will unlikely do anything regressive to the economy. Also he is rich enough already so no one will beable to buy him out, and less likely to misuse public funds. He also understands business and economics, which is great, Mbeki did too, and above all controverseys, Mbeki was grand for the economy.

    • lorgat94

      Controversies*

  • T.S.Mnconywa

    I also agree that these are the two frontrunners for ANC president. But what is important is to portray the good image of the party as it looses votes and trust particularly the middle income urban population

    • Brian

      Maybe you will consider a switch to the DA after studying their policies? I think they are our best hope for a united, growing SA. No reason for one party to stay in power for ever because it just makes them arrogant.

  • WhiteysComplainBoutEverything

    ANC next campaign should be “Better DA devil you know”
    On the bright side at least it’s not TRUMP….

    • Brian

      How he ever got in to become the most powerful man in the world I will never understand. DANGEROUS! (as Trump would tweet)

  • Ray Mulder

    Not much of a choice. The ANC say they are a democratic organisation but democracy is a farce when the subject get to choose from a pre-determined list… compiled by the top 6…

  • Brian

    With a bit of luck (and planning) the only people who will be affected by this will be ANC members after 2019. Go DA!! We badly need change to wipe away the arrogance and dishonesty that has permeated the ANC.

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