Here’s who would win the national election if it was held today – and why it could change by next year
Global analytics firm Ipsos officially released its bi-annual ‘Pulse of the People’ study on Tuesday (17 July), showing which political parties South Africans are most likely to vote for right now.
The survey was based on a randomly selected representative sample of 3,738 adult South Africans, which were interviewed in their homes and chosen languages.
Using a ballot paper, like those used in an election, respondents had to ‘vote for’ their choice of political party.
The question specified that they need to consider their choice as if the election were happening the next day.
Six in every ten South African adults of voting age chose the ANC.
Other opposition parties did not perform as well, with the DA, especially, performing well below the share of vote they received in the national election of 2014 and the local government election of 2016.
Ipsos said it was important to note that these figures are not a prediction for the national election in 2019, as it is still a considerable amount of time away, and many events that are likely to sway voting behaviour are bound to happen.
| Party | Choice on the national ballot | Choice on the provincial ballot |
|---|---|---|
| ANC | 60% | 58% |
| DA | 13% | 13% |
| EFF | 7% | 7% |
| IFP | 1% | 1% |
| FF+ | – | 1% |
| Another party | 1% | 2% |
| Would not vote | 5% | 5% |
| None of the current parties | 1% | 1% |
| Refused to answer | 7% | 7% |
| Not registered to vote | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 3% |
Leadership
Looking at these results, one might be tempted to think that the election next year will be plain sailing for the ANC. However, this is not necessarily the case, Ipsos said.
“Reactions to the following statement ‘The future of the ANC is uncertain because of the leadership issues within the party’, showed that more than half of South African voters (54%) ‘strongly agreed’ or ‘agreed’ with the statement.
“Although it is understandable that supporters of opposition parties will be more doubtful of the ability of the leadership of the ANC to keep things together – about six in every ten DA and EFF supporters agreed with the statement – it is interesting that just over half of ANC supporters also agree,” Ipsos said.
“In fact, the opinions expressed by supporters of different political parties are very similar. It is thus safe to conclude that the turmoil of the last few years made the ANC’s position vulnerable.”
It added that at the end of the Zuma years, trust in the ANC was very low, but the party has recovered quite significantly in the last seven months.
“The trust indices for both the DA and the EFF are in negative terrain, but the EFF made more progress in terms of building trust than the DA,” it said.
The future of the ANC is uncertain because of the leadership issues within the party
| Answer | Total SA voters | ANC supporters | DA supporters | EFF supporters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly agree / agree | 54% | 52% | 59% | 60% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 23% | 24% | 20% | 22% |
| Disagree / Strongly disagree | 20% | 22% | 16% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
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