Who would win the elections if South Africans voted tomorrow

The Institute for Race Relations has released a snap poll looking at how South Africans are likely to vote.

The poll was conducted between 26 November 2018 and 4 December 2018. The sample was fully demographically representative and comprised only registered voters. A total of 1,017 respondents were questioned.

It comprised three sets of questions: voting intention, party favourability (ANC, DA, EFF) and a question on the strength of support for Patricia de Lille’s proposed new political party, when forced to choose between it and the four biggest political parties.

Key findings of the report include:

  • The ANC is on 56% – up four percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 59%;
  • The DA is on 18% – down five percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 22%;
  • The EFF is on 11% – down two percentage points from September and, on a projected 69% turnout scenario, comes out with 10%;
  • That pattern is reflected in the party favourability ratings, which has 54% of respondents somewhat or very favourable towards the ANC (up from 53% in September); 28% somewhat or very favourable towards the DA (down from 34% in September) and 21% somewhat or very favourable towards the EFF (down from 28% in September);
  • In Gauteng, no party holds a majority. The ANC comes in with 48%, the DA 25% and the EFF 12%. The ANC has increased by two percentage points from September, the DA declined by three percentage points and the EFF has declined by five percentage points from September. On a projected 73% turnout scenario, the ANC comes in at 50%, the DA at 27% and the EFF at 10%; and
  • The potential market for Patricia de Lille’s new party seems to be primarily among undecided voters, some of whom are likely alienated from the DA and the ANC. After that, she draws support directly from respondents who had previously selected the DA or the ANC.

The IRR noted that this poll is not a prediction, but should rather be seen as a snapshot in time – in this case of the electoral market between 26 November 2018 and 4 December 2018.

Likewise, the numbers presented in the poll are not absolutely definitive, it said.

“A 3.9% margin of error means, for example, the DA – which comes out with 18% – could be on 21.9% or 14.1%.

A confidence level of 95% means we are confident 95% of the time the findings will never vary more than 3.9 percentage points up or down from reality.

“When reporting on the poll, it is important to bear these parameters in mind. Finally, the most valuable aspect of any poll is its ability to identify trends and patterns, particularly over time. One should thus avoid ascribing absolute authority to any given single, isolated finding,” it said.


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Who would win the elections if South Africans voted tomorrow