What the 2019 election results would look like if South Africans voted tomorrow

 ·20 Feb 2019

The Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (Afric) has published a new report focusing on what most worries South Africans.

The report is based on two polls of more than 3,500 South Africans conducted by Afric in October 2018 and February 2019.

The samples were based on quota limits (gender, age, and ethnic group) that correspond to the demographic characteristics of the country.

According to the survey results, there were 15 main concerns among the respondents – with unemployment, corruption, crime, drug and alcohol abuse, and poverty topping the list.

Attitudes towards the main political parties

Three quarters (75.5%) of respondents registered as voters and expressed the desire to vote in the 2019 national elections.

Respondents were asked to give their opinion on South Africa’s political parties, where 59.9% marked the ANC in a positive light, highlighting these achievements such as new initiatives to support business, anti-corruption policies, new taxes to improve the economy, and other policies targeting social ills like crime.

When comparing the results of the October and February polls, Afric found that the negative attitude towards the ANC has decreased by 3.5%.

Notably, the survey participants gave a negative assessment of the activities of such parties as DA, EFF and IFP.

Who South Africans would vote for

The respondents had the choice to reveal which party they were likely to vote for in May 2019.

58.1% said they will vote for the ANC, 16.7% for the EFF and 9.8% said they would vote the DA.

A recent poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) in December showed that support for the ANC had increased again under Ramaphosa.

56% of 1,017 registered voters surveyed by the IRR between November and December said they supported the ANC, up from 52% in September.

Backing for the EFF dipped to 11% from 13%, and DA support dropped to 18% from 23% before.

Based on a 69% turnout, the institute projected that the ANC would end up with 59% of votes cast, the DA 22% and the EFF 10%.

The researchers stressed that 6 million South Africans under 30 years of age and eligible to vote have not registered as voters, while youth is the core support group of the EFF.

Attitudes towards president Cyril Ramaphosa

In February 2019 it has been exactly 1 year since Cyril Ramaphosa is in charge and respondents were asked to elaborate on what they think about his performance so far.

Almost half (49%) of respondents positively assess the performance of the president, while 31.3% found it difficult to provide an assessment. Seven out of 10 (69.2%) respondents said they would like to see Ramaphosa as the president in the next five years.

Most citizens perceive president Ramaphosа “as a pragmatic and experienced politician, a person with a business mindset, which gives high hopes for improving the quality of life in the country”.

Read: What South Africa lost in the “9 wasted years” under Zuma

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