ANC could reverse losses in Gauteng in the 2019 elections

 ·10 Mar 2019

A new internal poll from the ANC shows an influx of support for the party – particularly due to the popularity of President Cyril Ramaphosa, reports the Sunday Times.

This could ultimately lead to the ANC stalling or even reversing its decline in support in Gauteng seen over the past few years.

While the ANC never lost control of Gauteng nationally, the party lost control of key metros in the 2016 municipal elections, including the City of Johannesburg and the City of Tshwane, pointing to waning support in the province.

The ANC lost out to the DA, which through coalitions with smaller parties, like the EFF, managed to take control of the metros. The DA has been pushing to win Gauteng in the national elections as well.

In the 2014 election, the ANC had 53.6% of the vote, while the DA had 30.8%. Analysts point to the ANC’s support base being at 54%-55% in the province.

The poll also found that the ANC was gaining popularity among some surprising demographics.

Notably, the data showed that white South African voter support for the ANC is at 8% – the highest ever for the party. Additionally, 23% of white South Africans polled said they there were considering voting for the ANC.

The poll showed that the ANC is most popular among voters over the age of 60, and that 29% of those with a post-matric qualification would vote for the party.

External polls

The ANC’s internal poll stands in stark contrast with a poll released by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) earlier this week.

The poll found that:

  • The ANC currently stands on 54.7% support nationally, down 1.3 percentage points from December (56%);
  • The DA currently stands on 21.8% nationally, up 3.1 percentage points from December (18%);
  • The EFF currently stands on 12.2% nationally, up 1.2 percentage points from December (11%).

In Gauteng, the ANC is well below a majority, the IRR said, with EFF growth remaining high, while in the Western Cape, the DA majority is on a knife-edge, with smaller parties showing some growth.

It added that the ANC’s general decline from 2014 (as of February, it is down 7.4 percentage points from the last election) can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF.

“The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters. Where those voters end up on 8 May will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties,” the group said.

“It is clear those 5% to 10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have, to one degree or another, shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months.”

The EFF appears to be the only opposition party able to make direct and significant inroads into the ANC’s support, the IRR said.

Read: New election poll spells bad news for the ANC

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