A new poll published by research group Ipsos shows that support for the leaders of the South Africa’s biggest political parties is waning, with just nine days to go before the country heads to the voting booth.
The latest poll, which was conducted between March and April 2019, shows a drop in support for the ANC and the DA, while support for the EFF is expected to rise on the national ballot.
According to a survey of over 3,600 registered voters, the snapshot shows the ANC securing 56.9% of the vote (down from 62.2% in the 2014 election), the DA getting 15% (down from 22%) and the EFF rising to 9.5% (up from 6.4% in 2014).
While this represents a snapshot across all registered voters, in a scenario where only 71% of voters turn up on the day, Ipsos says the final numbers could change – specifically, the ANC could increase to 61%, the DA to 19% and the EFF to 11%.
Trust in leaders
Despite the drop in support for the ANC in the national pre-election polling, Ipsos said that support for president Cyril Ramaphosa in particular has increased significantly over the past year – though it is down since the start of 2019.
Among registered voters, Ramaphosa is the only party leader to have a positive trust score among voters.
Opposition party leaders – the DA’s Mmusi Maimane and EFF’s Julius Malema – have negative trust scores among the electorate, who are majority ANC supporters.
When looking at trust for leaders from their party’s supporters, things change drastically.
EFF supporters trust Malema more than ANC supporters trust Ramaphosa – and both these leaders trump Maimane who has the lowest trust from a party support base.
“The levels of trust recorded in April in political leaders are lower than in February – however, all three of the leaders of the biggest political parties have managed to increase the trust expressed in their leadership from their own supporters,” Ipsos said.
The group noted that trust in all political parties from their support base is now lower than at the start of the year.
However, the ANC has gained the most ground, with trust in the party being restored from the record lows hit during the Zuma years.