The 16 people holding South Africa’s future in their hands
South Africa’s progress toward a Government of National Unity (GNU) has hit a significant roadblock, with the 16 members of the ANC and DA negotiating teams regularly reaching impasses.
Following the 2024 national election, the ANC lost its majority in parliament for the first time in the democratic era, acquiring just under 40% of the vote.
The party thus called for a (GNU), which has been joined by 10 parties so far: the DA, IFP, PA, FF Plus, Rise Mzansi, UDM, Good, Al Jama-Ah and the PAC.
The DA, besides the ANC, is the largest party to join the GNU.
Markets responded positively to the news of the GNU, with the rand breaking the R18.0 to the US dollar mark, while South Africa inequities experienced a substantial rally.
However, markets have now soured on the GNU due to public fights between the DA and ANC.
Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), said that markets expected President Cyril Ramaphosa to announce the cabinet of the seventh administration during this past week.
“This did not happen, and it is unclear when the announcement can be expected. Indeed, the lingering uncertainty, ‘leaked’ letters and increased worries about whether the GNU would hold meant that the rand turned impatient and, gyrating with the news cycle, steadily lost ground against the US dollar,” she said.
Both parties have very large negotiating teams that have not seen eye to eye on several matters.
According to the Sunday Times, the ANC’s negotiating team for the GNU has 10 members, while the DA has 6.
Notably, party leaders Cyril Ramaphosa and John Steenhuisen are not technically part of the negotiating teams over either party.
Below are the negotiating teams of both the ANC and the DA.
The ANC
- Fikile Mbalula – Secretary General
- Gwede Mantashe – Chairperson and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy
- Nomvula Mokonyane – First Deputy Secretary General
- Maropene Ramokgopa – Second Deputy Secretary General and Interim Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture
- Gwen Ramokgopa – Treasurer General
- David Makhura – Head of Governance*
- Mdumiseni Ntuli – Head of Elections*
- Nkenke Kekana – Head of Communications Sub Committee*
- Parks Tau – Deputy Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs*
- Febe Potgieter-Gqubule – General Manager*
*Technical team of the NEC
The DA
- Helen Zille – Federal Council Chair
- Ivan Meyer – Federal Chairperson
- Siviwe Gwarube – Chief Whip
- Alan Winde – Western Cape Premier
- Tony Leon – Former Party Leader
- Ryan Coetzee – Strategist
What seems to be the problem
The fundamental problem between the DA and the ANC concerns the cabinet positions the DA will receive.
According to Bloomberg, the ANC initially offered the DA three ministries, while the DA requested 12, as well as the position of Deputy President or Minister in the Presidency.
The ANC then came back with an improved offer that would see the DA receive six ministries and seven deputy ministries.
This included a Deputy Minister of Finance and an informal offer for a Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, with the latter seen as a compromise to stop the DA’s push for a Deputy President or Minister in the Presidency.
However, the ANC then retracted the Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition offer as it is part of the economic cluster, instead offering Tourism to the DA.
The DA then said it was willing to walk away from the GNU after the trade minister’s offer was retracted, calling into question the GNU’s stability.
It remains to be seen if the parties can find another compromise so Ramaphosa can finally announce his national cabinet.
Notably, the ANC and DA, with the help of the IFP and NFP, were able to establish a provincial cabinet in KwaZulu-Natal despite the parties only achieving 41 of the 80 seats in the provincial legislature following the strong debut performance of the Jacob Zuma-led MK Party.
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