Here’s how much South Africa’s population would change if everyone who wanted to leave actually did
A new Gallup study shows what would happen to South Africa’s population if everyone who was thinking about leaving the country followed through and left.
The Potential Net Migration Index investigated how much a country’s population would change if everyone who wanted to move to another country actually moved where they wanted – as well as the effect on skills and the number of young people.
The research is based on interviews done with nearly half a million adults in 152 countries between 2015 and 2017, following which, Gallup gauged the potential net gains and losses to a country’s adult population by subtracting those who would like to move out of a country from those who would like to move into a country.
Data for South Africa shows that the country is not a popular destination, with the resultant population of all these moves being a net loss in the population of 8% – more people want to leave, than want to settle here from elsewhere.
A similar impact – an 8% loss – would be seen among the youth of South Africa, Gallup said, pointing to the net loss of younger South Africans aged 15-29 when balancing the potential global migrations.
Losing skills
Gallup also included a potential brain drain/gain index, which shows how the ‘highly educated’ adult population would change, should those who indicated they would leave follow through.
This index is measured on a scale of -100% (meaning the total population of highly educated residents would leave) to infinity (meaning the potential inflow of this highly educated group is unlimited and depends on the number who want to move in from around the world).
For South Africa, the country would see a net loss of 16% for this segment of the population.
The highly educated residents are those who have completed four years of education beyond high school or have the equivalent of a bachelor’s degree, according to Gallup.
Stats SA last reported in 2016 that approximately 1.2 million South Africans had completed a Bachelor’s degree. Extrapolating the Gallup poll data, this would see in around 200,000 or more skilled South Africans leave the country.
This is what South Africa’s population would look like:
- Total population: 57.7 million (-8%) to 53.1 million;
- Young population: 15.2 million (-8%) to 14 million;
- Highly skilled population: 1.2 million (-16%) to 1 million.
Emigration in South Africa
South Africa has a well-documented emigration pattern, which has emerged over the last few years.
Numerous studies and surveys have shown that skilled South Africans are looking at other options, following a decade of stagnant growth in the country – while statistics show that white South Africans in particular are the most likely to leave.
While it’s easy to draw emigration along racial lines, a recent survey by executive recruitment group, Jack Hammer, found that it’s also skilled black South African managers and executives who are interested in taking opportunities elsewhere.
Looking at the various emigration metrics measured in South Africa, four patterns have emerged:
- White South Africans are leaving the country;
- Emigration is accelerating;
- Those who are leaving are wealthy, and taking that wealth with them;
- Those who are leaving are well educated and take their skills with them.
Read: Emigration-related home selling in South Africa has risen noticeably: FNB
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