The two provinces in South Africa where unemployment has quadrupled since 1994
While the Eastern Cape and North West have the highest unemployment rates in South Africa, the Western Cape and Gauteng have experienced the biggest increase—quadrupling since 1994.
This is according to data compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), which looked at the issue of unemployment in South Africa over the past 30 years.
South Africa’s unemployment rate trended upward in the second quarter of 2024 as tough economic and business conditions continued into 2024.
The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QFLS), published by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday (13 August), shows that the official unemployment increased by 0.6% from 32.9% in Q1 2024 to 33.5% in Q2 2024.
The employment rate has a linear relationship with economic growth, and South Africa’s growth following the Covid-19 pandemic has been stifled by record load shedding, deep-seated political and structural issues, and geopolitical tensions that hit the global economy.
“Our experience over the past 30 years has shown that when our economy grows, jobs are created. When our economy contracts, there is no job creation, and jobs are lost,” said President Cyril Ramaphosa at the opening of Parliament 2024.
When comparing the unemployment rates across the nine provinces in South Africa, the BER noted that higher unemployment is generally flagged in more rural provinces,
An example of this is the Eastern Cape, which, in large part, explains why many people move to the cities to find work.
However, this migration of jobseekers from these rural areas to big cities also goes some way in explaining the increased pressure on employment in provinces like Gauteng and Western Cape, which are seen to have more job opportunities available, but not enough to meet demand.
The data showed that the Eastern Cape’s unemployment rate had increased from 26% in 1994 to 40% in 2023.
However, this has increased further to 41% as of Q2 2024.
Surprisingly, however, it was revealed that the Western Cape’s unemployment rate quadrupled from just 5% in 1994 to 21% in 2023, which is now 22.2% as of Q2 2024.
This is closely followed by Gauteng, where the unemployment rate was 8% 30 years ago compared to 34% at the end of 2023.
However, compared to Q2 2024 (35.1%), the unemployment rate in South Africa’s wealthiest province has also quadrupled since 1994.
The Catch
Although the Western Cape’s unemployment rate has increased the most in the past 30 years, it’s important to understand that this is partly because it started at a relatively low base in 1994.
Additionally, the province still boasts the most stable employment market, with the lowest unemployment rate in the country as of 2024.
According to Stats SA, the Western Cape has the lowest unemployment rate (standard definition) in South Africa at 22.2%, meaning it has the most people working versus unemployed in the country.
This still remains the case when considering the expanded definition of unemployment—which includes discouraged work seekers.
The extended unemployment rate in South Africa’s provinces ranges from 27.3% to 54.2%, with the Western Cape being the only province with a rate below 30% on the expanded definition.
Unemployment rate as of Q2 2024:
What’s more, the Western Cape is the only province that has consistently been well below the South African average official unemployment rate over the past ten years, with KZN toeing the line.
This is also directly correlated to the performance of the provincial economy.
According to Stats SA and reports from Wesgro, the province’s economy thrives on strong sectors like tourism, agriculture, finance, and technology, providing diverse job opportunities.
Moreover, according to Moody’s Investors Service, the province’s sound financial management and infrastructure projects, including reliable public transport and energy supply, support sustainable economic growth.
This was evident in the GDP growth rates of each province, which highlighted that the Western Cape and KZN—the two with the lowest unemployment rates—were the only provinces to show economic growth over the last three quarters.
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