Business

The only company of its kind in South Africa scoring big from the United States’ war

Jonathan Hoyle

 ·5 Aug 2026

South African petrochemical group Sasol is expecting to see strong interim results, taking advantage of global oil supply crises.

The company is South Africa’s only inland fuel producer, and refines vehicle-grade petrol and diesel, along with aviation fuel.

The company has several refineries, with its most notable operations in Sasolburg and Secunda, both of which are among the largest fuel-producing facilities in the country.

In a trading statement, the company said it is expecting its earnings per share to rise by between 65% and 84% in its upcoming interim financials.

It has also forecast its EBITDA to rise by 12%-20% to approximately R60 billion, with headline earnings per share expected to increase.

Sasol said these positive outlooks are driven by several factors, including improved production efficiency and global oil prices.

“The increase in earnings for the year was driven by a combination of management actions and a more supportive macroeconomic environment during the last quarter of the financial year,” it said.

The company reported a 4% increase in sales volume, which it attributed to improved production at its refineries.

It also noted an approximately 7% increase in global oil prices during the interim period.

Volatile global oil prices have been driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the United States and Iran, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait is a critical supply channel for the global oil trade, and its closure has placed immense pressure on global supply.

The war erupted after the United States launched its attacks against Iran at the end of February 2026.

Sasol has been able to benefit from this crisis, with its source of petrol often being from coal, which is mined near its refineries in South Africa.

The company also noted that lower impairments of R16.8 billion before tax were beneficial, compared to R20.7 billion in the prior year.

Not all good news

Despite the boon from the US war, Sasol said it had faced challenges in the interim period that negatively affected earnings, including a stronger rand against the dollar.

The company said the rand had been, on average, 7% stronger against the dollar compared with the previous year.

It also noted the once-off settlement with Transnet, which had cost the company R4.3 billion in the previous year.

It said that unrealised losses of R1.1 billion on the translation of monetary assets and liabilities had also offset its earnings for the year.

Sasol said there were several other significant impairments to its operations in the current year, including the cash-generating unit of its Secunda liquid fuels refinery.

The company said that recoverable amounts had improved through management actions, but the rand’s exchange rate had a negative impact.

“Further progress of initiatives is required before additional benefits can be reflected in the recoverable amount,” the company said.

“The full amount of costs capitalised during the current year of R7.7 billion has been impaired, with R3 billion already accounted for in the interim financial statements.”

Sasol noted that, while it expects an increase in its earnings, year-end working capital is also expected to rise due to global oil prices.

Sasol has seen impressive growth since the outbreak of the war in Iran, and currently has a market cap of R119.2 billion.

Its share price soared after the outbreak of the war in Iran and has remained high amid uncertainty about when the conflict will end.

Between 2 March 2026 and 16 March 2026, during the first two weeks of the Middle East conflict, Sasol’s share price rose by approximately 35%.

The prices increased by roughly R5 per share, largely driven by uncertainty about fuel supplies outside South Africa.