Goodbye Cape Town – reverse semigration trend hitting South Africa

Some property experts have noted a reverse semigration trend of working South Africans moving back to Johannesburg due to return-to-office culture, work opportunities, and cost of living.

In recent years, the Western Cape has become a popular destination for those seeking a change of pace, scenery, and a sense of supposed stability. 

Cape Town, the Winelands, and the Garden Route have attracted professionals, families, and retirees looking for a new lifestyle. 

However, the tide is shifting as a growing number of these semigrants are making their way back to Johannesburg.

According to property group Fine & Country, one of the main reasons behind this reversal is the return-to-office culture. 

“While remote work surged during the pandemic, many companies are now moving towards hybrid or in-office work models,” it said.

According to a survey by CareerJunction, nearly 60% of South African employers are adopting these changes, and many of the country’s largest firms are headquartered in Johannesburg. 

Additionally, the property group added that professionals are realising that career progression and high-level networking are still centred in the city. 

“For many professionals, being close to head offices and leadership teams is essential for career growth. Johannesburg continues to be the hub for corporate decision-making,” explained John Herbst, CEO of Fine & Country Sub-Saharan Africa.

Johannesburg’s status as South Africa’s economic powerhouse is another significant factor influencing the reverse semigration trend, with many searching for better opportunities.  

According to data from Stats SA, Johannesburg contributes nearly 16% of the country’s GDP and accounts for over 40% of all business services output.

Herbst highlighted that Sandton, in particular, remains a key commercial hub, housing the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and many of Africa’s largest corporations.

“The city has an undeniable economic momentum, and people are recognising that the most lucrative business opportunities remain here,” said Herbst.

“We are seeing renewed interest from professionals and business owners who are recalibrating their long-term strategies.”

The cost of living is also playing a crucial role in this shift. Property prices in Cape Town, especially in popular areas, have continued to rise sharply.

Lightstone data shows that property prices in Cape Town have surged by nearly 25% over the past five years, compared to Johannesburg’s 12% growth.

As a result, many are finding it increasingly difficult to afford the lifestyle they desire in the Western Cape. In contrast, Johannesburg offers more space and value for money.

“Buyers are realising they can get larger properties with better amenities in Johannesburg for the same price they’d pay for a smaller home in Cape Town’s prime areas,” said Herbst.

Interestingly, he added that infrastructure and service delivery considerations are also influencing decisions to move.

“While Cape Town is often praised for its municipal governance, challenges such as load shedding, water supply issues, and transport difficulties remain national concerns.

“Some semigrants have found that relocating did not necessarily shield them from these systemic issues,” he said.

Herbst highlighted that the growing demand for homes in Johannesburg has positively impacted the local property market, particularly in well-established suburbs, secure estates, and areas close to business hubs.

According to Herbst, Johannesburg’s residential market is showing resilience. We are seeing strong demand in secure lifestyle estates and high-end suburbs that offer space, security, and proximity to top schools and business districts.

Areas like Sandton, Bryanston, Fourways, and Midrand are gaining traction as they provide modern amenities and easy access to commercial nodes.

Herbst noted that Fourways has transformed into a bustling business and lifestyle hub, thanks to the Fourways Mall redevelopment and the surrounding commercial growth— making it an attractive choice for professionals returning to the city.

“Johannesburg’s unique blend of business opportunities, lifestyle options, and property value is drawing people back. It remains the city where careers are made, and futures are built,” said Herbst.