Bad times for braai lovers in South Africa

The latest South African Braai Index shows that anyone looking to host a braai this month will face a higher bill, as prices have increased significantly from last month and last year.

The cost of a basket of foods used for a braai has increased 1.1% from February 2025, and 3.4% from March 2024, pushing slightly higher than headline inflation.

While the food costs are still lower than the significant highs recorded over the past few years, it marks a continuation of the upward trend in pricing seen in 2025 so far.

The Braai Index was conceptualised by Bloomberg and is compiled monthly using the latest data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMGEJD)—in this case, March 2025.

The index looks at the food items used in the preparation of braai, and tracks the movement in prices of this specific basket month-on-month and year-on-year.

This includes meat (Beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).

The biggest culprits making South Africa’s favourite pastime more expensive this month are mainly vegetables, with carrots in particular shooting up in price between February and March.

Year-on-year, however, the price of maize meal has been the biggest price pain.

According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), global maize prices have maintained an upward trend over the past few months as part of a wider rise in the grain sector.

This has been driven by reduced seasonal supplies in Brazil, deteriorating crop conditions in Argentina, and robust export demand for US maize, mainly from Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Colombia and Portugal.

Consecutive months of increases for maize in South Africa had been driven by tight domestic stock levels from 2024’s low production, strong regional demand, and uncertainty about the 2025 season’s production outlook due to the late start, the BFAP said.

Month-on-month index change [+1.1%]

Year-on-year index change [+3.4%]

Meat prices

You can’t have a braai without meat, and the Braai Index show that meat prices are once again going in the wrong direction—though this is mixed.

Beef prices are lower overall, but worse has climbed higher, as has chicken.

The BFAP noted that the South African meat market has been generally mixed across the different types and cuts.

Prices for poultry, for example, fell following international trends in February, with support from the exchange rate. March’s numbers show the pricing reverse.

In the beef market, February beef carcass prices were also down, suggesting increased supply following the mid-summer drought experienced between December and January—something that has continued into March.

Notably, the group noted that weaner calf prices are on an upward trend, driven by rising demand from feedlots in anticipation of Easter and expected reductions in feed prices with the summer crop harvest.

This could feed into higher prices in the coming month.

Pig and sheep meat prices—not tracked in the PMBEJD basket or the index—rose month on month in February.

The BFAP said this reflected higher sheep meat prices globally, and persistently high feed costs that affect intensive pork production.

In addition, slaughter numbers were marginally down in the pig market, it said.

The bureau noted that animal disease outbreaks are something to watch in South Africa, as they have a significant impact on market dynamics.

In the pork sector, no new African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks were reported following the confirmation of new cases in the Eastern Cape and North West provinces in January 2025.

However, new cases of Foot and Mouth Diseases (FMD) emerged in KwaZulu-Natal in February 2025.

In the poultry sector, the potential spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), carried by migratory wild birds from Europe, has raised significant concerns about vaccine availability and
access as the winter months approach, it said.

“While HPAI is introduced by migratory birds travelling south to more favourable habitats during summer, the virus tends to thrive in cooler temperatures,” the BFAP noted.

“On the other hand, egg producer prices are declining reflecting the ongoing recovery from the last HPAI outbreak, providing relief to consumers at the retail level.”