The one province in South Africa where murder is on the rise

South Africa has seen a significant decline in murders since the start of 2025, with the Northern Cape the only province to see an increase in its murder rate.

The latest crime stats from the South African Police Service for the first three months of 2025 show that the number of murders in South Africa dropped by 12.4% to 5,727 murders since the beginning of the year.

This is a vast improvement from the same period in 2022, 2023 and 2024, where murders totalled over 6,000 for the period.

The murder rate per 100,000 has also dropped from 10.6 in 2024 to 9.1 in 2025. However, this remains above the 8.3 seen in the same period in 2021.

When it comes to murder, the Eastern Cape remains the most dangerous province. Per every 100,000 people, 15.4 people are murdered.

However, this is far lower than the 17.4 recorded in the same period in 2024, and beats the 2022 level.

The Western Cape had the second-highest murder rate at 14.2, a decrease from the 15 seen in 2024.

KwaZulu-Natal completed the top three but saw a huge drop from 12.4 in 2024 to 10.0 in 2025. Gauteng also saw a decline from 9.7 to 8.5 and remained in fourth.

However, South Africa’s least populated province, the Northern Cape, saw a significant increase in its murder rate, rising from 6.8 per 100,000 to 8.3.

Despite being a relatively small number compared to other provinces, the Northern Cape’s total number of murders increased by 23.1% to 112.

Given their larger populations, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal saw the largest number of murders at 1,439 and 1,193, respectively.

Police Minister Senzo Mchunu noted that although the Northern Cape contributes only 2% to the total murder statistics, the increase cannot be ignored and will be addressed with targeted actions.

Outside of the Northern Cape, all other provinces in South Africa, including the Free State, Mpumalanga, North West and Limpopo, saw notable increases in their murder rates. 

Overall drop in crimes

On top of murders, South Africa has also generally seen a significant decrease in crimes across the country over the quarter, with only two overall increases.

Concerningly, reported rape cases increased by 0.3% to 10,688 cases reported, while contact sexual offences also increased by 21% to 236 over the quarter.

Given that many sexual offences often go unreported in South Africa, the figures are likely far worse in a country plagued by extreme abuse of women.

There are, however, some relatively bright sparks for South Africa, with attempted murder, common assault, common robbery and robbery with aggravating circumstances all seeing a decrease.

Overall contact crimes, which are crimes against a person, declined by 5.8% to 161,672 over the period.

The number of carjacking cases decreased by a massive 15.1% to 4,533 in the country. Robbery of cash in transit also declined by five incidents to 35. Truck hijacking also dropped by 99 to 359 cases.

Robbery at residential premises also declined by 0.4% to 5,516 cases, and at non-residential premises, it declined by a notable 23.4% to 3,298. 

No Genocide

Following the meeting with US President Donald Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Mchunu criticised the claims of a “white genocide” in South Africa.

Mchunu said that the term “genocide” is distinctly foreign and strange, adding that lots of material has been put into circulation by the White House.

“We have respect for the USA as a country, we have respect for the people in that country and for President Trump, but we have no respect for this genocide story at all,” said Mchunu.

“It is totally unfounded and unsubstantiated…We do not deny that the levels of crime in the country are high; we are very concerned.”

An example used by Trump and his team showed a picture of many crosses on both sides of a dirt road, which he claimed were mass graves.

However, this was not the case.

The crosses were erected following the murder of Mr G Rafferty and Mrs VL Rafferty in 2020. The incident led to a strong protest from the farming community.

Mchunu stressed that the crosses symbolised killings on farms over the years; they are not graves. Three suspects were sentenced for the murder and are in jail.

He noted that crime cuts across all divides, and that SAPS is intensifying the fight against crime and criminals.