Mobile broadband domination to continue
Global telecom operator revenue blew past US$2 trillion in 2012, with over 60% of that amount going to mobile operators, according to Ovum – a trend which the analyst firm believes will continue until 2016.
In its New Revenue Opportunities in Telecoms: 2013–16 report, the firm shows that mobile broadband presents the single largest opportunity for telcoms to gain back revenue in the next few years.
Ovum’s forecast shows further that mobile broadband will grow 19.2% annually, generating $122.9 billion in incremental revenue between 2013 and 2016.
According to the report, other segments with double-digit revenue growth over the next five years include public cloud, enterprise Ethernet, IPTV, and managed/hosted IP voice.
“The recovery from the 2009 recession has been weak, and the ongoing global fiscal crisis continues to present a risk to the telecom industry,” said John Lively, chief forecaster at Ovum.
“Over the next 3–4 years, both fixed and mobile operators will face the same fundamental challenge: to increase new sources of revenue fast enough to offset the decline in mature services.”
Ovum’s report points to a shift in the consumer market, where it will have to compete with new over-the-top players as well as traditional competitors.
“For infrastructure vendors, increases in overall capital expenditures will be limited by low single-digit gains in service provider revenues,” Ovum said.
Ovum said further that vendors should look to high-potential product segments – such as converged packet optical; ROADMs; 40G/100G networking gear; carrier Wi-Fi; and network-related services – to grow revenues.
“Component makers (can) expect continued high volatility in market demand – higher highs and lower lows than their customers or end customers are experiencing,” Ovum warned.
“Winning a share of 40G and 100G business will be essential to avoid being left behind by competitors,” it said.
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