Goodbye Cape Town – why some South Africans are leaving the Western Cape

Despite the Western Cape being a migration hotspot for affluent locals and foreigners looking for better services and lifestyle, affordability is pushing some South Africans from expensive areas like Cape Town to more affordable towns in the Western Cape, or Gauteng for better employment opportunities.

Migration patterns across South Africa reveal shifting dynamics, with Gauteng and the Western Cape emerging as the two primary destinations for semigrants.

However, the reasons behind this movement vary significantly, influenced by factors such as economic opportunity, affordability, quality of life, and governance.

Despite Cape Town’s reputation as a favoured destination for affluent migrants, Gauteng continues to lead as the province experiencing the highest population influx.

According to Stats SA, Gauteng’s allure stems largely from its status as South Africa’s economic powerhouse, offering job opportunities and affordable property options.

This magnetism draws migrants from across the country, with notable contributions from Limpopo (1.3 million residents) and KwaZulu-Natal (738,000 residents) since 2001.

Gauteng is also home to 1.1 million foreign-born individuals, far surpassing the 368,000 residing in the Western Cape.

Despite its popularity, Gauteng also experiences a significant outflow of wealthier residents, many of whom are drawn to the Western Cape by its superior service delivery and lifestyle appeal.

In recent years, property markets in Gauteng and the Western Cape have been dominating sell-to-buy transactions, with these two provinces accounting for 71% of such activity.

Lightstone data shows that while Gauteng continues to attract repeat buyers, its retention rate has declined by 10% in recent years, whereas the Western Cape has seen a far more modest drop from 89% to 87%.

Cape Town, often seen as the jewel of the Western Cape, has been a focal point for semigration.

Its reputation for effective governance, stunning landscapes, and high living standards has lured both domestic and international migrants.

However, affordability challenges are causing some residents to leave the city.

While Cape Town’s property prices remain higher than those in Johannesburg or Pretoria, many semigrants opt to stay within the Western Cape, relocating to areas along the outskirts of the city.

Locations such as Langebaan, Malmesbury, and the Winelands (including Stellenbosch and Paarl) are growing in popularity due to their relative affordability, proximity to amenities, and quieter lifestyles.

Richard Gray, CEO of Harcourts South Africa, notes that the Western Cape’s attractiveness surged during the COVID-19 pandemic as remote work enabled people to move to smaller towns along the Garden Route and establish home offices.

Although the demand for property in the Western Cape remains high, rising prices have tempered the pace of migration.

Gauteng, by contrast, continues to appeal to those seeking economic opportunities and value for money.

Johannesburg, in particular, is South Africa’s most affordable major metro, with an average property transaction price of R1.2 million—below the national average of R1.3 million.

Gray also highlights Gauteng’s potential as an investment hub, provided governance and infrastructure improve.

The property market reflects these migration trends.

Many semigrants moving to Gauteng do so for affordability and job prospects, often at the expense of leaving provinces like KwaZulu-Natal or Limpopo.

Meanwhile, the Western Cape draws wealthier semigrants, who are often prepared to invest substantial sums in high-end properties, particularly along Cape Town’s Atlantic Seaboard.

The demand for homes priced between R5 million and R20 million remains robust, especially among buyers seeking a combination of lifestyle, security, and prestige.

Coastal towns like Hermanus, Langebaan, and Mossel Bay are also popular among retirees and those looking for secondary residences.

Samuel Seeff, chairman of the Seeff Property Group, emphasises the role of service delivery and governance in migration decisions.

In Gauteng, areas offering improved services and safety within gated estates are particularly attractive to buyers.

Similarly, the Western Cape’s reputation for effective local governance continues to drive demand.

Estates in Stellenbosch, Paarl, and Somerset West, for instance, attract buyers from Gauteng seeking proximity to top schools, universities, and lifestyle amenities.

While many South Africans dream of moving to Cape Town, financial constraints or the inability to sell their current properties can be barriers.

Conversely, the migration patterns suggest that for those already in the Western Cape, the preference remains to stay within the province, albeit in less central areas such as Cape Town.

Ultimately, migration across South Africa reflects broader societal trends: the pursuit of economic opportunities, better living conditions, and secure environments.

Gauteng remains a hub for those seeking affordability and employment, while the Western Cape’s draw lies in its perceived safety, governance, and quality of life.

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