The one big winner of reverse semigration in South Africa – and a clear loser
Property experts have noticed a growing reverse semigration trend in South Africa, where job seekers, especially, are moving out of the Western Cape and returning to Gauteng.
This has started to reflect in higher demand for premium office space in the province as its commercial property landscape is reshaped by return to office mandates, and the promise of economic opportunities for professionals.
According to the Wise Move Migration Report 2025, nearly a quarter of Western Cape movers are returning to Gauteng or even trying other coastal cities like Gqeberha.
The report showed that despite a net outflow in 2024, Gauteng still leads in internal migration, accounting for over 60% of all intra-provincial moves.
This has presented as a reigniting of demand for rental office space across Johannesburg and Pretoria.
Keke Khojane, GCS Head of Office for Galetti Corporate Real Estate, said that employment remains the key driver of the trend, with 22.9% of respondents in the Wise Move survey citing job opportunities as their primary reason for relocating to the province.
The latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey from Stats SA reinforces the sentiment, highlighting a net employment gain of 9,000 jobs in Gauteng.
This is in sharp contrast to substantial losses in KwaZulu-Natal (down 104,000), the Eastern Cape (down 83,000) and the North West (down 57,000).
Khojane said the stats reinforce Gauteng’s status as South Africa’s employment engine, centred around Joburg and Pretoria.
The fact that office space is winning in the reverse semigration trend is also evident in other data points.
The latest data from the Rode Report Q1 2025 shows that South Africa’s office market is experiencing a modest yet steady recovery.
Khojane said vacancy rates have begun to decline from 2024’s highs, with weighted gross market rentals for decentralised grade-A office space climbing 4.8% year-on-year.
Goodbye work from home
While the reverse semigration trend is a boon for commercial property in economic hubs, it is coming at the cost of the more flexible work environments employees have become accustomed to over the past few years.
Khojane said that the recovery in office and commercial rentals is being spurred significantly by return-to-office mandates and hybrid working models that require employees to be in the office a set number of days a week.
“Prominent employers such as Vodacom, Nedbank and Arena Holdings have already formalised the five-day return-to-office after revising their remote working policies,” she said.
While work-from-home is unlikely to disappear entirely, the trend has started diminishing fairly rapidly as remote work positions start drying up.
CareerJunction’s Employment Insights Report for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed a steady decline in work-from-home opportunities despite isolated growth in specific sectors.
During the pandemic years, remote work surged, but remote or hybrid job listings fell from 4.3% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024, indicating that this downward trend will continue.
The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight uptick in these positions at 4%, but this was specific to the business and management sector, which lends itself better to remote work.
CareerJunction’s survey also revealed that nearly 60% of South African employers now require more in-office presence.
Vodacom is a prime example of a major South African employer shifting back to in-office work.
In 2024, the telecommunications giant ended its blanket hybrid work-from-home policy and required senior staff to return to the office.
Also reflecting the current trends of reverse semigration and back-to-office culture, most available job positions are located in Gauteng, which has shown an upward trend in supply and demand.
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