What LTE means for investors
With Vodacom having switched on its Long Term Evolution (LTE) network on 10 October 2012, and the subsequent scramble by its competitors to unveil their LTE plans, an analyst believes 8ta is the “dark horse” in this space with its access to spectrum.
Vodacom CEO Shameel Joosub announced at the MyBroadband Conference 2012 that Vodacom’s LTE service had been officially switched on, and was open for business initially via more than 50 base stations in Johannesburg, with other cities to follow in the near future.
Joosub added that, by the end of the year, Vodacom aimed to have 500 sites enabled for LTE with a theoretical speed capability of over 100 Mbps.
At the same conference, 8ta head Amith Maharaj announced that the group would launch its LTE trial in Gauteng using spectrum in the 2,300Mhz band.
8ta said that customers within its LTE coverage areas across the Gauteng region would be able to apply to participate in a trial from 1 November 2012 until 31 March 2013.
8ta’s LTE trial will only be available in Gauteng, but the company is extending its network to Cape Town and Durban in its first launch phase.
MTN, meanwhile, also outlined its plan to launch LTE in South Africa before the end of 2012. The group sadi it expects to have 400–500 sites live by the end of 2012.
Chief technology officer of MTN SA, Kanagaratnam Lambotharan, said that the group already has 250 sites ready to go, and are aiming to launch in Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Durban.
Cell C’s 3G network, which currently exceeds 3,000 sites across the country, is already LTE ready. CEO Alan Knott-Craig said the group will launch a commercial LTE offering before the end of the year.
Nadim Mohamed, investment analyst & partner at First Avenue Investment Management believes that Vodacom has created quite a lead over the competition, as it plans to have 500 sites provisioned by end of the year while the competition have not yet launched commercially.
“Our view is that LTE will initially be accessed through dongles or MiFi devices as most smartphones used in SA are not LTE-capable, which creates a barrier to adoption.”
“Therefore, I don’t think the short-term impact will be substantial – however, in the longer term, data consumption could well increase substantially as consumers start getting used to higher download speeds,” the analyst said.
He said that the overall financial impact of this increase in wireless data would depend on: 1) ability to maintain price per Mb of data and 2) substitution of highly profitable circuit switched voice with less profitable Voice-over-IP services.
“We think the former will be difficult to achieve, given the intense price competition we’ve seen in recent months with mobile data.
“8ta is the ‘dark hose’ here with its access to 60MHz of spectrum in the 2.3 GHz band as well as Telkom’s fibre network – it is best positioned to offer a consistent download experience to subscriber.
“We would like to see 8ta leverage this position; however, this will depend largely on government finalizing its decision making process on the future of Telkom,” Mohamed said.
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