New rules coming for petrol and diesel rationing, and a level 3 fuel shortage emergency in South Africa
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has published its draft Strategic Petroleum Stock Policy, 2026, for public consultation.
The draft policy directly addresses concerns and issues raised during the recent global oil shortage, which led to panic buying and anxiety over fuel shortages in the country.
However, the draft policy also addresses broader-picture concerns about South Africa’s capacities.
This includes the context of the country’s loss of refining capacity, regulatory gaps in the private sector and various vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
As a net importer of crude oil and increasingly refined products, the department noted that South Africa remains vulnerable to international supply chain disruptions, price volatility, and geopolitical shifts.
The draft policy thus establishes a “robust framework” for the mandatory holding of emergency reserves and outlines what happens when an emergency is triggered.
The main objective of the policy is to ensure readiness by maintaining a buffer of physical stocks that can be released during a declared state of emergency, the department said.
To do this, it wants to build a holding of emergency fuel reserves and also make this mandatory for private manufacturers and wholesalers.
At its core, the policy wants to establish the following reserves:
- Government-held stock of crude oil equal to 90 days of net imports;
- Manufacturer- and wholesaler-held stock of refined products, such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel, for 14 days.
The department stressed that this strategic reserve is specifically intended for catastrophic events rather than minor operational inefficiencies.
The Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources would be the authority empowered to trigger the release of these stocks, the department said.
These triggers would operate on different levels, as determined by the minister.
| Trigger level | Category | Description / Threshold | Primary Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | Supply Alert | Loss of 20% of national refined product supply (e.g., refinery outage or single port closure) for more than 14 days. | Voluntary industry stock sharing and SANPC readiness audit. |
| Level 2 | Supply Disruption | Loss of 40% of national supply with total depletion of commercial industry mandatory stocks, the 21day safety buffer. | Initial drawdown, this is a restricted release of stocks to essential services and key economic hubs. |
| Level 3 | National Emergency Declared by Minister | Severe global supply shock or total failure of the import value chain impacting more 50% of supply. | Mass drawdown, this is a wide market release and implementation of fuel ration. |
| Economic | Price Stability | Unprecedented price volatility reaching $145 per barrel threatening GDP growth. | This is a strategic sale of products in a competitive auction |
The policy recommends that the government hold the stock required to cover a total of 90 days of net imports, primarily in the form of crude oil stored at the State-Owned Saldanha Bay facility.
To complement this, the policy introduces a mandatory requirement for licensed manufacturers and wholesalers to maintain an additional 14 days’ refined product stock, such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel.
“This dual responsibility ensures that the state manages long-term strategic security and cushions the economy against global supply chain shocks while the private sector contributes to immediate downstream resilience,” it said.
The governance and funding of this system will be anchored by the new state-owned petroleum company, the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC).
This new SOE emerged from the merger of SFF, PetroSA, and iGas in 2025.
South Africa needs reserves
The department said that South Africa’s petroleum stocks are characterised by insufficient physical reserves, which jeopardise the national petroleum security.
It noted that the closure or conversion of major domestic refineries such as SAPREF and ENGEN into import terminals has shifted South Africa from a crude-importing nation to a finished-product-importing nation.
This has significantly increased the risk of immediate supply shocks.
“This leaves the economy exposed to risks such as fuel supply shortages in emergency situations without a buffer against external shocks and currency fluctuations and short-term supply logistics,” it said.
It added that dependence on long shipping routes and specific maritime chokepoints exposes the economy to an estimated R1 billion in losses for every single day of total fuel unavailability.
It also takes a minimum of 21 days and a maximum of 42 days for imports to reach South African ports of entry.
This is exacerbated by a further 10 -14 days spent on offloading, refining and transporting products from coastal refineries to the inland market.
“This has necessitated a policy shift towards an agile and integrated stock holding model that will provide the necessary safeguards during emergencies,” it said.
Regarding the involvement of the private sector, the department said there has been a distinct lack of a mandatory stockholding obligation on these companies.
This has left the state as the sole guarantor of supply during disruptions, and “this is a burden the state cannot carry alone, especially given fiscal constraints,” it said.
The draft policy can be read below.
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