Eskom only has 3 months – and it’s not looking good
Despite load shedding suspensions and big drop in breakdowns at its power stations in recent weeks, power utility Eskom is still some ways off of hitting its energy availability target for March 2024.
As part of Eskom’s longer-term recovery plan, the group has set a target of hitting an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 65% by March 2024, and reaching 70% by March 2025.
The energy availability factor shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when it was needed. It is a core measure of performance.
If the EAF can be improved to around 70%, load-shedding will be a thing of the past, and South Africa will have electricity security.
However, the latest data compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan shows that the power company is struggling to get further than an EAF of 55% – which is even lower than the 60% EAF target Eskom set for March 2023.
The group had come the closest to achieving this target in October, when EAF breached the 60% level – but this was incredibly short-lived.
While EAF is on an upward trajectory and is far higher than the levels seen for much of the year, it remains far off from the looming ‘deadline’.
The last time Eskom saw EAF above 65% was around the middle of 2021, and it will be an uphill battle getting plant performance to hit even those levels once again.
According to energy expert Chris Yelland, the targets of 65% and 70% EAF were always a political dream rather than an achievable reality – at least in the relatively short timespan of a year or two.
He previously noted that while there will be good weeks and bad weeks, the average EAF and the trendline will take years to shift course from the downward trend seen over the past few years.
Despite energy availability being relatively unchanged, a significant drop in demand and a much-improved breakdown situation are working in Eskom’s favour and allowing the group to keep load shedding at bay – at least for now.
Demand patterns are matching the seasonal trend, with most businesses shut down for the festive season and many away on holiday. Grid stability will come under pressure once again in the new year when businesses return to normal operations.
Unplanned outages – aka breakdowns – have hit their lowest levels all year, however, and are even lower than levels experienced in most of 2022.
The combination of lower demand and much lower breakdowns has given Eskom the golden opportunity to ramp up its maintenance significantly, with planned maintenance levels now at the highest they have been in three years.
Read: Big turn for Eskom and load shedding – but not without help
Loading ...