Bad news for South Africans who love chocolate
South African chocolate lovers are in for a tough year as the price of cocoa continues to increase, climbing by almost 70%.
The problem lies in the cocoa belt, particularly in West Africa, which produces around 70% of the world’s cocoa.
Extreme weather conditions, persistent drought, and fluctuating temperatures have significantly impacted cocoa yields, sending prices soaring.
A recent analysis by Climate Central showed how climate change has exacerbated the crisis, with rising temperatures pushing cocoa-growing regions beyond their optimal range.
“This is the first study that tries to put a number on how much humans and climate change are influencing cocoa trees and cocoa production from West Africa,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central.
These findings confirm what many in the chocolate industry have flagged over recent years, and that is cocoa farming is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Chocolate and sustainability consultant Vicki Bain explains that the cocoa industry is facing one of its most severe crises.
“We’re seeing more extreme weather patterns,” she said. “While some areas are getting hotter, others are experiencing prolonged dry spells, disrupting farming cycles.”
This unpredictability has led to a decline in the size and quality of cocoa harvests, forcing global cocoa prices to reach unprecedented levels.
West African nations like Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for 60% of the world’s cocoa production, have been hit hardest.
Farmers have also struggled against the harsh Harmattan winds, which cause leaves to yellow and young cocoa pods to wither, further diminishing their yields.
These regions have been hit with erratic rainfall and rising temperatures, reducing their cocoa output and rising prices.
This supply crisis has had an inevitable effect on cocoa prices. Over the past few years, the price of cocoa beans has surged by around 500%.
Until October 2023, cocoa consistently traded below $4,000 per ton, but the situation has rapidly worsened.
“Terrible crops in West Africa, which produces most of the world’s cocoa, are primarily driving these increases,” said Anthony Gird, co-founder and director at Honest Chocolate.
The diminished supply has led to fierce competition among chocolate producers, further increasing costs.
Despite sourcing its cocoa from Tanzania rather than West Africa, South Africa has not been immune to the price surge. “People are willing to pay a much higher rate because you can’t get it in West Africa.”
The ripple effect means South African chocolate makers, including those prioritising ethical sourcing, have seen their costs soar.
“We pay above the market price, but the market price is double what we used to pay in the first place,” Gird said.
“Honest Chocolate, for example, has experienced a 140% increase in cocoa bean costs compared to last year’s shipment,” he added.
While chocolate manufacturers have tried to absorb some of these costs, consumers have still felt the impact.
The Outlier’s price tracker shows that in 2017, a standard milk chocolate bar cost around R14.15 in South Africa.
By December 2024, that price had jumped to R23.92—a stagging 69% increase, far outpacing the country’s overall inflation rate of 43% over the same period.
However, the extent to which consumers are affected depends on the type of chocolate they buy.
Premium chocolates with higher cocoa content have been hit the hardest by the price hikes, while mass-produced chocolates with lower cocoa percentages have seen more moderate increases.
For chocolate lovers, this means higher prices and potentially smaller portions as manufacturers adjust to soaring costs.
“This is not just a short-term problem. In the years ahead, the entire industry will need to rethink how it sources and produces cocoa,” Bain warned.
Loading ...