Government preparing for social unrest in South Africa
The South African government has flagged rising concerns over the risk of social unrest in the country, and its putting plans in place in case that concern becomes a reality.
This was highlighted in the National Security Strategy (NSS) for 2024–2028, adopted by the Cabinet in March 2024 and presented by the minister in the presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.
The minister outlined, among other things, how the government plans to respond to growing internal and external threats.
“South Africa remains a stable country. however it faces a number of potential threats to its national security and interests,” the report said.
The strategy stressed that readiness not only at a government level but across society, is essencial to umitigate risks that can easily evolve into major national security threats.
One of the most urgent dangers identified is economic hardship, worsened by the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the global fallout from the war in Ukraine.
The strategy warned that poor economic growth risks fuelling social instability between 2024 and 2028, driven by unemployment, poverty, inequality, and failing service delivery.
The report argued that these hardships are compounding frustrations among citizens, particularly in vulnerable communities, and eroding trust in the state.
Social instability mainly due to social hardship driven by unemployment, poverty, inequality, poor service delivery, and shrinking black middle class are among the critical concerns cited in the report.
Other concerns included poor governance, crime, and a trust deficit between the government and the public , as well as general lawlessness.
Political instability is also expected to rise. The strategy pointed to ongoing turmoil at the local government level, fuelled by unstable coalitions, corruption, and increasing levels of political violence.
Cyber threats are also expected to grow significantly, including cyber terrorism, fraud, espionage, and the disruption of government services.
“Cyber risks will underpin many of the other risks we face,” the NSS warned, noting that increased digitalisation of the state will make South Africa more vulnerable to cyberattacks.
The repor said these risks will likely impact on South Africa’s national security and need to be planned for and mitigated through government programmes and whole of society.
Flare-ups
External threats are also a concern, particularly the growing risk of being drawn into regional conflicts, such as in Mozambique.
“Although it is unlikely that there will be a direct military threat to South Africa, there is a greater possibility of international military crises drawing in the country,” the report said.
It added that these threats are complicated by the growing use of hybrid tactics such as economic coercion, disinformation, and terrorism, which blur the lines between civil unrest and military conflict.
Disease and climate change are also flagged. The NSS noted that future pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, and climate-related disasters such as floods and severe weather could cause widespread disruption to infrastructure, essential services, and the economy.
“South Africa’s vulnerability will be increased by our large population and open society,” it adds.This warning comes at a time when real-world tensions are already escalating.
In KwaZulu-Natal, police commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi recently made explosive claims of corruption involving senior political and police figures and ties to an international drug syndicate.
These claims, and the public fallout they sparked, have raised the worries of renewed unrest in the province.
Although the provincial government has downplayed the likelihood of violence, it has acknowledged the risk and put contingency plans in place.
“We are alert to the risk of unrest,” said provincial spokesperson Bongani Gina, adding that authorities are working to avoid a repeat of the devastating July 2021 riots, which left more than 350 people dead and caused an estimated R50 billion in damages.
Additionally, frustration among informal traders is also boiling over. The South African Spaza and Tuck Shop Association (SASTA) has pushed back hard against new government proposals to ban the sale of single cigarettes and alter packaging rules.
SASTA argued that such changes would threaten the livelihoods of tens of thousands of informal traders who depend on cigarette sales for their daily income.
“For informal traders, tobacco products, especially single sticks, serve as daily income generators,” the group said.
It warned that its over 100,000 members are “organised, mobilised, and capable of coordinated economic action,” hinting at possible protests and civic disruption if the policies are implemented.
The release of the National Security Strategy was accompanied by a summary of national intelligence estimates for the period 2019–2024.
While no major unrest events besides the 2021 riots were recorded during that time, Minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni admitted that the intelligence services failed to foresee the severity of those riots.
She added that details of the current national estimates cannot be released, as doing so would “undermine the state’s security strategy.”
The report underscored that the threat of unrest is real and unless mitigated, it could escalate further in the years ahead.
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