Good news surprise for South Africa comes with a harsh edge
Annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in October, dropping by 0.1% month-on-month.
The cooling surprised against economists’ expectations, where the majority polled by Bloomberg and Reuters anticipated no change.
However, despite the positive of lower inflation, the data also reflected another worrying assessment: food price inflation is rising, driven by higher meat prices.
According to Stats SA’s data, annual inflation cooled in five of the 13 product categories tracked, most notably in transport, recreation, sport & culture, as well as information & communication.
Four other categories registered no change, while food & non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), restaurants & accommodation services, and alcoholic beverages & tobacco recorded higher rates.
The annual change in transport slipped to 0.7% in November from 1.5% in October, pulled lower by softer inflation rates for vehicles and fuel.
Vehicle inflation was 0.9%, the lowest print in more than 12 years (since June 2013, when the rate was also 0.9%).
A closer look at the data reveals a consistent decline in used vehicle prices since August 2024. Used vehicles were on average 1.8% cheaper in November 2025 than in November 2024.
New vehicles, on the other hand, were 1.2% more expensive. Prices for used SUV/MPV vehicles decreased by 3.9%, while prices for new bakkies rose by 2.8%.
On the fuel front, prices dropped by 2.2% between October and November, bringing the annual rate for fuel down to 0.1%.
With fuel prices rising by between 30 and 80 cents per litre, this will likely impact the inflation reading for this month.
However, current fuel price recoveries point to a reversal of this in January 2026, which means petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to destabilise the inflation trajectory too much.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for food price inflation, which is currently being driven higher by meat prices, which have suffered due to a widespread outbreak of foot and mouth disease.
Annual inflation for food & NAB in November recorded its first increase in four months, quickening to 4.4% in November from 3.9% in October.
Meat prices driving food inflation
Meat prices increased on average by 12.2% in the 12 months to November, the highest annual rate since January 2018 (13.4%).
Beef products have experienced high inflation rates for several months.
According to Nedbank, the double-digit increases in meat prices come amid ongoing outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, which were first publicly revealed in May 2025.
The disease broke out at South Africa’s biggest feedlot and subsequently spread to most other provinces.
While the national government, producers and farmers worked to try to contain the outbreak, Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen admitted last month that they were losing the battle.
In a bid to ramp up efforts to address the outbreak, Steenhuisen announced that the department would launch a vaccination drive to treat the entire national stock.
While the impact of FMD has been felt most acutely in red meat products, Stats SA noted that other meat products have now joined the fray in seeing higher prices.
It recorded price increases with pork, mutton & lamb, as well as sausage prices, “rising fast,” it said.
Luckily, the price hikes in these proteins are being offset by moderation in most other food categories, with healthy crop yields particularly benefiting from favourable weather conditions.
The milk, other dairy products & eggs category recorded its sixth successive month of deflation. The rate has slowly crept higher, though, from -1.6% in September to -1.5% in October and -1.2% in November.
Full-cream and low-fat fresh milk have occupied deflationary territory for most of 2025. Similarly, eggs have registered negative annual price changes since November 2024.
Inflation for cereal products moderated to an annual rate of 1.7% from 2.0% in October.
The monthly change was -0.6%. Prices for key staple cereals registered monthly declines, including white rice (-3.1%), maize meal (-0.8%), and white bread (-0.5%).
Although the index for oils & fats recorded inflation of 5.2% in November (up from 4.8% in October), margarine products registered negative monthly changes.
Specifically, the price index for brick margarine dropped by 2.1% and margarine spread by 0.1% between October and November.
The graph below shows the food and beverage products that recorded the sharpest price increases and decreases in November.
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