Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for February

Malcolm Libera

 ·16 Jan 2026

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate that petrol and diesel users in South Africa are anticipating a significant price cut in February 2026.

The data shows that both the rand-dollar exchange rate and the movement in global product prices, driven by global oil, are working in favour of motorists.

The stronger rand in the new year has kept fuel recoveries positive, while oil prices have dropped significantly, bringing petrol prices into the positive as well.

Petrol prices are now consistently showing a positive recovery of between 77 and 82 cents per litre.

Diesel prices, meanwhile, have just continued to shine, now showing an over-recovery of between 92 cents and R1.02 per litre for next month.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 78 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 82 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 93 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 102 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 81 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for December.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Rand dollar exchange

The rand has remained on the front foot in 2026, trading stronger against the dollar at around R16.37/$

In the US, initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined in the week ended 9 January 2026, while both the New York Empire State manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index improved more than anticipated in January

Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often responds to global factors, particularly US policies. It traded at 16.4050 against the dollar, unchanged from its previous closing level.

On Wednesday afternoon, Trump commented that the violence during Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests was subsiding, indicating that he was adopting a wait-and-see approach toward the crisis.

The US dollar showed slight strength against a basket of currencies, while gold prices retreated as Trump’s more diplomatic tone lowered the demand for safe-haven assets.

South Africa’s local currency is expected to remain within a narrow range as traders continue to monitor the situation in Iran.

Higher trade outcomes, the precious metals rally, removal from the grey list, a sharp drop in the inflation target, and inflation itself over the past few years, the higher domestic economic outlook, and the credit rating upgrade all added to rand strength.

Global oil prices

While oil prices have been on a downward trajectory, recent events have put pressure on global prices.

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Iran, and the Black Sea have pushed oil prices to a three-month high, despite ongoing oversupply.

Initially, Brent crude fell below $60 per barrel after the US ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, as expectations grew for a quick restoration of oil output.

However, protests in Iran and US threats of intervention led to a 9% price increase, pushing oil above $66.

While potential regime change in Iran could eventually increase global oil supply, the immediate risk is of supply disruptions, particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil.

Despite recent price surges, crude remains within a narrow range due to rising global supplies that may outpace demand.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):