South Africa’s semigration lie
While the Western Cape is often deemed the nation’s semigration hotspot, Gauteng continues to attract an influx of young workers and homeowners from around the country.
Due to the Western Cape’s stronger governance and often superior quality of life, Cape Town and other smaller towns are seeing an influx of workers from other provinces.
However, Gauteng remains the nation’s economic hub, with young workers moving to urban areas in search of jobs, lifestyle convenience, and affordable entry points into property ownership.
“While public attention has largely focused on semigration to the Western Cape, Gauteng remains the country’s biggest population magnet,” said Pam Golding Properties CEO, Dr Andrew Golding.
“This is particularly the case for younger South Africans seeking employment opportunities. This demographic momentum is now feeding directly into housing demand.”
Stats SA’s data showed that the population of Gauteng rose from 9.9 million in 2002 to 16.1 million in 2025.
ooba Home Loans data shows that first-time buyers’ appetite in Johannesburg strengthened to 44.2% of total applications received between January and April 2026.
Moreover, the more affordable Gauteng South and East rose even higher to 57.0% of total applications.
Golding noted Johannesburg also recorded the strongest year-on-year growth in first-time buyer purchase prices nationally, rising by 21.8% to an average of R1.38 million from January to April 2026.
“Importantly, conditions for first-time buyers are improving as banks compete aggressively for market share, increasingly offsetting affordability pressures through more competitive mortgage lending.”
“In an effort to remove barriers to homeownership, banks are offering incentives such as cost-inclusive home loans, reduced deposit requirements and more favourable lending terms for first-time buyers.”
ooba’s data showed that the average deposit nationally averaged 12.4% between January and April this year, but the average deposit for first-time buyers was only 8.3%.
On top of the improved access to finance, Golding said that other trends also support Gauteng’s residential property market recovery, such as relatively stable interest rates.
The province has also benefited from new residential developments entering the market and a growing demand for convenient lifestyle hubs where residents are close to work and other amenities.
“This trend may accelerate further should fuel prices and transport costs continue rising amid ongoing global oil market instability,” added Golding.
Far more space
Golding added that Gauteng’s employment market continues to underpin this demand. “Over the past five years, Gauteng has generated more employment opportunities than the Western Cape.”
These job spreads were across Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni, each of which has housing markets larger than Cape Town’s.
This wider spread has diluted the visible pressure on Gauteng’s property market compared to Cape Town, where a similar rise in employment growth was absorbed within a far smaller housing market.
Income levels are also reinforcing Gauteng’s buying power. SARS 2025 data showed that Johannesburg residents earned the highest average income among South Africa’s metros in 2024.
Residents in Johannesburg earned an average of R480,318 per annum in 2024, which is R109,000 more than those living in Cape Town.
The overall market faces risks in the coming months following the outbreak of the Iran War, which has led to higher inflation and an expected rise in interest rates. Higher interest rates hurt the property market.
Pam Golding Properties Residential Property Index showed that the revised national house price inflation accelerated to 4.1% in April 2026.
“The ongoing Middle East crisis poses a clear upside risk to South Africa’s inflation outlook, which could place further pressure on household finances and potentially force interest rates higher.”
Despite the risks to the market, Golding said that Gauteng’s large and diversified metro economies appear suited to capture the next wave of housing demand as the nation’s young population urbanises.
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