Adrian Gore sends a warning to South Africa
Discovery CEO and Founder Adrian Gore is confident that South Africa’s current path will lead to economic growth, but warned that the nation must play its cards smartly.
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Gore said that two main themes of the forum were on US President Trump and the use of AI.
He noted that South Africa has also seen several green shoots over the last couple of months, praising the work between South African business and the Government of National Unity (GNU).
South Africa received its first credit rating upgrade in 20 years at the tail end of the year by S&P Global, with Moody’s and Fitch expected to follow in the near future.
In a world of self-interest, Gore said he is incredibly confident in the rubric South Africa has established to increase economic growth, confidence, and jobs.
While South Africa’s GDP growth in 2026 is expected to average around 1.5%, estimates suggest it could reach 3.0% by 2030.
Central to the government and businesses’ plan to increase economic growth is tackling issues related to electricity, logistics, water, and service delivery.
“Whatever we do must be about economic growth that creates jobs, that creates confidence, and you get a virtuous cycle,” said Gore.
“Confidence creates investment, and you get economic growth. In a world of self-interest, we need to be careful how we play, what we do and not do foolish things.”
Getting out of the lost decade
Economic growth is key for South Africa, given that the last decade has been described as a lost decade.
Economic growth has failed to breach 2.0% year-on-year for a decade, apart from a Covid-19 recovery in 2021.
The economy has been dealt several major blows since 2016, including state capture, the Covid-19 pandemic, the July 2021 unrest and heavy floods in 2022.
With the South African population growing by 1.3% to 1.6% per year over the last decade, the population has grown poorer on a per capita basis.
While the IMF has raised South Africa’s growth prospects to 1.3% for 2025, with expectations of 1.4% in 2026, this is relatively low compared to peers in emerging markets.
While South Africa’s economic growth can reach 3.0% by 2030, it will depend heavily on strategic reforms and improved international relations.
Aluma Capital Chief Economist Frederick Mitchell said that central to the economic recovery is the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
This Act offers crucial trade benefits for African exports to the United States, which recently received bipartisan support in the US House of Representatives for its renewal.
However, it remains unclear whether South Africa should be included amid strained diplomatic relations, with US President Donald Trump already imposing a 30% tariff on South African goods.
Mitchell also warned that another threat to South Africa lies in an economic slowdown in its largest trading partner, China, which could severely limit the economic recovery.
“As a nation heavily reliant on trade, particularly with the global shift in commodity prices and demands, any downturn in the Chinese economy will resonate back home, risking another setback in growth rates and investment levels,” said Mitchell.
However, on a positive note for growth, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to cut interest rates further, boosted by a stronger rand against the US dollar, lower inflation expectations and stable oil prices.
The Reserve Bank is also expected to cut interest rates by roughly 50 points in 2026, with the first cut potentially taking place this week.
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