Trouble for meat and seafood lovers in South Africa

Consumer price inflation in South Africa remained stable in May, but rising seafood and meat prices are adding pressure to food bills, especially beef.

Consumer price inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% in May. The consumer price index increased by only 0.2% between April and May.

Food & non-alcoholic beverages is the only category that contributed to the monthly rise in the CPI, with a 1.1% monthly increase.

The annual rate for the category increased from 4.0% in April to 4.8% in May, the highest print since March 2024 when the rate stood at 5.1%.

Meat, especially beef, is a key reason for the rise in food inflation. The annual rate for meat jumped from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May. 

In April, monthly increases for beef products ranged from 6.2% to 11.9%. In May, notable increases were recorded for beef steak, up 4.5%, stewing beef, up 2.5% and beef mince, up 1.7%. 

“A widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, combined with higher feed prices, contributed to the rise in beef inflation,” said Stats SA. 

The fish & other seafood category recorded an annual increase of 4.9% in May, up from 4.8% in April. 

Hake stands at 9.1% and fish fingers at 6.1%, which is more expensive than a year ago. 

The annual rate for oils and fats was 5.6%, the highest since April 2023’s 10.0%. Sunflower oil recorded a yearly increase of 7.6% and brick margarine 7.9%.

Vegetable prices tend to be highly volatile, depending on seasonal factors. The annual rate for the category was 10.3% in May, up from the recent low of -2.6% in November 2024. 

The rate in May is the highest since January 2024, when it was 12.6%. High annual increases were recorded for beetroot (64.0%), lettuce (20.9%) and carrots (13.4%).

Maize meal and samp also continue to record high price increases, with the annual rate for cereal products standing at 4.5% in May, with double-digit inflation registered for maise meal (14.2%) and samp (20.6%). 

However, apart from biscuits, most wheat-based products are still experiencing low inflation rates. 

Savoury biscuits saw a monthly increase of 2.2%, increasing the annual rate to 12.5%. Sweet biscuits saw a monthly rise of 1.5% and a yearly growth of 6.4%.

Some good signs 

There was other good news from the latest stats, with the inflation rates for hot beverages subsiding. 

The index was unchanged between April and May, but the annual increase slowed from 15.2% in April to 12.4% in May. 

This is the lowest year-on-year rate for hot beverages since April 2024, when it was 11.4%.

Fuel prices also dropped by 1.1% between April and May, pushing the annual rate down to negative 14.9%. 

This is the most significant annual decrease for fuel since October 2024 when the rate was -19,1%. Petrol is 15.9% and diesel 12.6% cheaper than the previous year.

The positive trend should continue into June’s stats, thanks to a small petrol and diesel price cut this month.

However, there are some red flags moving into July, with the latest spike in oil prices because of the escalating war in the Middle East pointing to a possible hike.

Should fuel price recoveries remain strained through to the end of the month and a price hike realised, inflation will likely come under pressure.