The end of load shedding in South Africa is close – with a very big catch
Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says Eskom’s spectacular turnaround puts the end of load shedding “within touching distance.”
However, while load shedding may be approaching an end, South Africa’s energy crisis is not, with load reduction becoming the new face of pain for households across the country.
In a media briefing on Monday (12 August), the minister said that Eskom has staged a spectacular turnaround and is currently producing more energy than is needed in terms of demand.
The utility announced on Friday (9 August) that it had maintained an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 68% over the past seven days.
In the month of July, Eskom achieved an EAF of 67.41%. The last time this performance was achieved was in July 2021.
Aiding in this improved generation is a reduction in breakdowns. Current unplanned outages averaging between 9,800MW and 12,400MW since 1 April 2024 – the start of Eskom’s Financial Year (FY) 2025.
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at
15,500MW and load shedding limited to Stage 2 – this remains in force.
Ramokgopa said that Eskom’s exceptional performance on the generation side was deliberate and orchestrated.
South Africa has seen 138 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply since March 26 March, including 104 days of constant supply in winter.
The last time South Africa experienced over four months of load shedding suspension was more
than four years ago, from 16 March 2020 to 09 July 2020, when load-shedding was suspended for 116
days.
“Everything is coming together from the effort that has been put in across the board at Eskom. This is a shining example of what can be done to turn around from the lowest lows,” he said.
However, he said that South Africans should be dubious about any claims that load shedding is over.
“I think we need to caution against any early declaring that load shedding is behind us. We are doing everything possible to resolve this question.
“The numbers do indicate that we are within touching distance…We should be getting an additional 2,500MW onto the grid this year,” he said.
This includes the return of Medupi unit 4, adding 800MW; the firing up of Kusile unit 6, adding another 800MW; and the life extension of Koeberg unit 2 will add another 980MW.
“We will tell you when we are out of the woods when we are done with load shedding. At the right time, when we can substantiate that claim,” he said.
The new face of South Africa’s energy crisis
However, while national generation has clearly turned things around, South Africans will know that the claim of “uninterrupted power supply” is not the reality they live in, with various municipalities and local areas suffering extended periods of outages due to load reduction.
Ramokgopa acknowledged this, saying that “we don’t have a problem on the (national) generation side, but we are facing new problems on the reticulation side – especially in municipalities.”
“We are doing everything possible to deal with the new phenomenon of load reduction,” he said.
The minister said that huge amounts of debt underpin the load reduction crisis in the country, as well as mismanagement and neglect by local municipalities – big and small.
He said that Eskom is owed collectively about R78 billion by municipalities, and the municipalities themselves are owed R349 billion by various categories of customers, including households, businesses and government.
Unfortunately, as a result, key infrastructure has fallen into disrepair, and the resulting collapse impacts everyone.
“There are people who are diligent customers who pay their bills, but they are also affected by load reduction. Poor households, who genuinely can’t afford or don’t have the means to pay their monthly account, are also hit. They all need to be protected,” he said.
The minister repeated promises to work with the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) to resolve the crisis from an investment and pricing point of view.
He said that the government will be launching a second phase of an “intervention” that has been trialled with the help of the private sector in three municipalities to get municipalities to pay off their debts.
The intervention was piloted in three municipalities: the Beyers Naudé local municipality in the Eastern Cape, as well as at the Kamiesberg and Nama-Khoi municipalities in the Northern Cape.
In the second phase, two municipalities from each province will be added to the pilot with those that owe Eskom the most money being prioritised. However, he said that municipalities have to opt-in to the pilot, as the department cannot force them to take part.
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