Level 6 severe weather warning for South Africa
The South African Weather Service has issued multiple warnings in anticipation of an approaching cut-off low, which is expected to bring heavy rain, disruptive snowfall, and dangerous coastal conditions to various parts of the country.
An Orange Level 6 warning for significant rainfall has been issued for areas between Kugompo City (East London) and Port Edward.
This may lead to flooding of roads, bridges, and settlements, as well as possible damage to property and infrastructure.
An Orange Level 5 warning for heavy disruptive snowfall is anticipated in the extreme north-eastern high ground of the Eastern Cape.
This could cause traffic disruptions, interrupt essential services, and affect isolated communities.
A Yellow Level 4 warning for disruptive rain is expected along the KwaZulu-Natal coast south of St Lucia, which may result in localised flooding and impacts on infrastructure.
Yellow Level 2 warnings for additional disruptive rain are forecasted for the southeastern Eastern Cape and the eastern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, excluding the extreme northeast.
Light-to-moderate disruptive snowfall is also anticipated over the northeastern high ground of the Eastern Cape, potentially leading to difficult travel conditions.
A Yellow Level 1 warning for damaging coastal winds and high waves is predicted between Cape Columbine and Cape Agulhas, creating hazardous conditions for small vessels and causing localised disruptions to beachfront activities.
Very cold and wet conditions are expected to develop from Tuesday evening through Thursday across parts of the Eastern Cape, southern KwaZulu-Natal, southern Free State, and along the Lesotho border.
Light snowfall may occur in some areas, and farmers are advised to take precautions to protect livestock and crops.
The South African Weather Service warned travellers in any of the affected areas to stay updated with the latest forecasts and warnings, avoid flooded roads, and consider postponing any unnecessary travel if conditions worsen.
Caution advised as El Niño approaches
Looking ahead, South Africa may face another period of severe weather in the coming months, as forecasts predict one of the strongest El Niño events in decades.
Despite this, the impact of drought on food price inflation has decreased due to rising real incomes and the availability of new goods and services.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, emphasised that while El Niño typically leads to higher food prices, it is essential to consider how different products contribute to overall inflation.
According to the latest report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre, there is a 97% probability that a super El Niño will develop.
Additionally, it is expected that the event will be among the strongest recorded since 1950 during the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027.
Bishop pointed out that South Africa has experienced several significant El Niño events in recent decades, including those in 1991/92, 2015/16, and 2023/24.
The 2015/16 event was particularly severe, causing the country’s worst drought in 35 years and pushing food price inflation to 18.4%.
However, she clarified that not all food categories have the same impact on South Africa’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
For instance, fish and seafood account for only 0.43% of the CPI basket, making their influence on overall inflation minimal, even when their prices rise significantly.
During the 2015/16 El Niño, fish and seafood inflation surged from 8.0% year-on-year to 11.3%, representing a 21.2% increase in the price index.
Despite this rise, Bishop noted that this category contributed “less than 0.1%” to the CPI, which is considered negligible.
A similar trend was observed during the less severe 2023–24 El Niño, when fish and seafood prices increased by 11.7%.
“This did not register in the CPI inflation outcome either at all,” Bishop said, even though overall consumer inflation increased by 8.3% between the end of 2022 and the end of 2024, while food inflation rose by 11.2%.
By comparison, products such as meat and cereals have a much greater influence on inflation because households spend significantly more on them.
Loading ...