One South African province where more people are unemployed than working

When factoring in discouraged work seekers, South Africa’s North-West province has the worst unemployment rate with more people unemployed than working.

South Africa continues to grapple with a severe unemployment crisis, with Statistics South Africa’s latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) highlighting the deep-rooted nature of the problem.

The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a meagre decrease in the official unemployment rate, dropping by 0.2 percentage points to 31.9%.

However, this minor shift does little to change the broader picture of a stagnating job market, worsened by the rising cost of living, high interest rates, and ongoing power cuts.

The report shows that the number of unemployed individuals declined by 20,000 to 8.0 million, while the labour force expanded by 112,000.

At the same time, the number of discouraged work seekers increased by 111,000, bringing the total non-economically active population to 16.5 million.

These figures illustrate the persistent challenges faced by job seekers and suggest that while some may have stopped actively looking for work, it is not due to an improvement in employment opportunities.

Among the provinces, the Western Cape boasts the lowest official unemployment rate at 19.6%, followed by the Northern Cape (27.4%), KwaZulu-Natal (28.6%), and Limpopo (31.9%).

Notably, the Western Cape has consistently remained below the national unemployment average over the past decade, a feat only KwaZulu-Natal has somewhat managed to replicate.

In contrast, the Eastern Cape has remained above the national average for the same period, solidifying its position as the province with the highest ‘narrow’ unemployment rate.

However, when considering the expanded definition of unemployment—which includes discouraged job seekers—the situation becomes even more dire.

The national expanded unemployment rate varies between 24.8% and 52.8% across provinces, with the Western Cape being the only province with an expanded rate below 30%.

The most alarming statistic comes from the North West, where more people are unemployed than working, with an expanded unemployment rate of 52.8%.

This means that over half of the province’s working-age population is jobless and has given up looking for work, underscoring the region’s economic distress.

A decade of stagnation

Despite the North West’s dire situation, broader employment trends across the country paint an equally concerning picture.

A recent study published in the Development Southern Africa journal highlights that South Africa’s eight metropolitan areas have experienced weak employment growth over the past decade.

These metros are Cape Town, Tshwane, Johannesburg, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mangaung, eThekwini, and Ekurhuleni.

Johannesburg, eThekwini, and Cape Town play a crucial role in the country’s economy, yet many of them have struggled to create jobs.

Professor Ivan Turok, the South African National Research Foundation Chair for Economics, said that overall employment growth has been weak, with some metros even losing jobs over the past ten years.

Nelson Mandela Bay, for instance, has seen a 5% decline in employment, while Cape Town has experienced a 20% increase, translating to an annual growth rate of approximately 2%.

While Cape Town’s job growth keeps pace with population increases, Turok warns that it is not extraordinary and has not led to a significant drop in unemployment levels.

A key strength of the research lies in its reliance on tax data, which captures all formal employment, providing the most reliable measure of job trends.

By using tax records from SARS, researchers have constructed an accurate depiction of employment shifts across the country’s metropolitan areas.

However, Turok warns that the difference between Cape Town and Johannesburg is not as extreme as some might think.

Cape Town has performed better, but its job growth is still moderate. Meanwhile, Johannesburg’s employment levels have not collapsed but are not improving either.

The Covid-19 pandemic made things even worse for jobs across the country. Professor Turok says that six of the eight major cities have not yet recovered to the number of jobs they had before the pandemic.

Only Cape Town and eThekwini have bounced back, showing just how much the economy was affected.

While the North West’s staggering unemployment figures are deeply concerning, they are symptomatic of a broader national issue.

South Africa’s employment landscape has remained stagnant for over a decade, with little indication of significant improvement.