South Africa’s most expensive province to buy groceries

Gauteng remains the most expensive province in South Africa to buy groceries since the start of 2025, with Johannesburg leading as the priciest major city, followed by Durban and then Cape Town.

This is according to data from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD) group, which tracks the cost of a household food basket across various regions.

The PMBEJD report found that while 17 of the 44 tracked food items became cheaper year over year, 27 experienced price hikes and five items saw double-digit inflation.

There are further risks to food prices for 2025, as experts have highlighted the potential impacts of US President Donald Trump’s new trade policies, while Shoprite CEO has flagged the negative effects of a looming VAT hike.

Anchor Capital economist Casey Sprake said that food inflation in South Africa is expected to gradually increase over the coming months.

She explained that one significant factor contributing to the impact of food inflation in the country is its heavy reliance on imports.

Despite having a notable agricultural and farming sector, South Africa is still a net importer of food products, meaning it cannot produce all the food it consumes.

Sprake mentioned that former US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could also raise food prices in South Africa.

Not only has his election sparked global uncertainty, particularly surrounding possible tariffs, but he has also been outspoken about his disagreement with certain South African policies, such as the country’s new Expropriation Act.

“This poses a threat to the dollar-rand exchange rate, and since the country is so reliant on imported food products, South Africa is very vulnerable to fluctuations in the strength of the rand,” she said.

Last month, the nation’s budget was postponed after members of the coalition government rejected plans to raise the value-added tax (VAT) by two percentage points.

However, this does not mean that an increase in VAT is off the table, as the minister of Enoch Godongwana noted that the raised hike is currently between 0.5%pt and 1%pt.

Shoprite CEO Pieter Engelbrecht has warned that this would be very bad for food prices and South African households.

“I hope that it’s not going to be the case that we see that increase [VAT] because consumers just can’t afford it,” said Engelbrecht.

Engelbrecht also warned that businesses are equally unlikely to be able to absorb such increases on behalf of customers. 

This is because they’ve had to build their own power and water supplies after years of cuts and invest in new distribution centres to hold more stock because of poor local production capacity and port delays.

Most expensive city

At the end of February 2025, the cost of a household food basket, comprising 44 essential food items that reflect typical purchasing patterns, reached R5,313.22.

This is a 0.7% annual increase of R35.92 compared to February 2024. However, month-on-month, the basket price saw a more significant decrease of R120.48 or 2.2%, compared to January.

While this annual increase is lower than the overall consumer price inflation rate of 3%, food costs remain a pressing concern for many South Africans, particularly in urban areas where grocery prices continue to rise.

Recent data from Statistics South Africa shows that food inflation peaked at 5.1% in June 2024 before slowing, providing some relief.

However, this decline has done little to alleviate the strain on household budgets in cities like Johannesburg, where food prices remain higher than the national average.

A breakdown of costs by region further highlights the disparities. In Johannesburg, the household food basket cost R5,446.07 in February 2025, reflecting a 1.7% increase of R88.54 from the previous year.

This figure surpasses the national average by R132.85, making Johannesburg the most expensive metro for groceries.

However, monthly data shows that the price of Johannesburg’s basket was 1.1% or R61.31 cheaper than in January, which was recorded at R5,507.38, meaning the cost of food is declining.

In comparison, Cape Town recorded the cheapest food basket among the three major metros at R5,250.75, which is R195.32 less than in Johannesburg.

Meanwhile, Durban’s food basket declined to R5,254.06, reflecting a 0.2% annual decrease and a notable 3.6% reduction from the R5,451.07 recorded in January.