Energy

Highest petrol prices in South Africa’s history coming next month

Staff Writer

 ·8 Sep 2026

Petrol and diesel prices in South Africa are on track to hit a new record high in October, with recoveries deep in the red, and no relief in sight.

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the first seven days of September, petrol and diesel prices are lining up for another huge hike.

Petrol is at an under-recovery of R1.81 and R1.93 per litre (for petrol 93 and 95), while diesel is at R1.73 and R2.03 per litre (for 0.05% and 0.005 sulphur).

If current market conditions persist for the rest of the month, petrol prices will surpass the new record high set in June 2026, when the Iran War shock pushed prices to R28.06 per litre.

At the current recovery levels, petrol prices could escalate to R28.83 per litre—a disastrous outcome for motorists.

Petrol prices broke the worst-ever levels in June 2026 after the shocks of the Iran War filtered through global energy markets.

The June 2026 price surpassed the previous record of R26.74 per litre reached in July 2022, when global oil markets were shaken by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Both the Iran War and Russia’s war with Ukraine are ongoing.

The picture for diesel prices is also bad. With the wholesale price of 0.005% diesel at R30.05, prices are R1.83 per litre off from the latest record set in May 2026 of R31.88 per litre.

With under-recoveries for diesel at R2.03, October could set a new worst-ever level of R32.08 per litre.

Before 2026, the highest per-litre diesel price was R25.53, recorded in July 2022.

These are the latest recoveries:

• Petrol 93: increase of R1.81 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R1.93 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R1.73 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R2.03 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.08 per litre

The table below outlines the escalating price changes this year.

No relief in sight

To avoid hitting record highs, the under-recovery in petrol would have to fall to R1.13 per litre by month-end (an 80 cpl improvement).

Unfortunately, the main driving force behind the massive under-recoveries in fuel prices is the US-Iran War in the Middle East, which is showing no signs of easing.

While global oil markets started breathing easier around July, when it appeared the war was coming to a close, that relief was undone when peace talks collapsed.

Since then, the tensions between the warring nations have only escalated.

The United States is taking a hard line against Iran’s demands, while the Middle Eastern nation continues to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

This has sent oil prices shooting up to over $90 a barrel, after moving to pre-War levels around $70 a barrel when peace was still on the cards.

In the latest developments, prices have risen past $99 per barrel, approaching the psychological $100 mark.

This comes as Saudi Arabia halted some energy operations near its border with Yemen due to attacks, highlighting regional supply risks.

Pressures from multiple fronts in the Middle East are being exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Russia and Ukraine, which is also tightening supply.

Worse still, oil futures are rising further as markets fear deeper disruptions to flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are not seeing an end to the pressures any time soon.

“Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Middle East conflict,” Goldman Sachs Group analysts said.

Analysts are raising their oil-price estimates on the assumption that shipping disruptions will persist into 2027, with risks tilted “significantly to the upside”.

This means the oil pressure is unlikely to subside and bring relief to local pricing, and even a stronger rand versus the dollar cannot counter it.

At around R16 per dollar, the rand’s resilience is helping offset the deep under-recovery from rising oil prices, but only by about 15 cents per litre.

With weeks still to go before recoveries start to settle into a firmer outlook for October, the current trajectory and forecasts indicate that South Africans likely won’t be spared record-high fuel prices.

Post-Iran War price adjustments

With Bloomberg