Ramokgopa bites back at energy plan critics
Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says that it is not enough for critics of the government’s new Integrated Resource Plan to argue and make “unhelpful” comments through the media – they need to make official submissions through the public comment process so their voices can be heard.
The minister made the remarks in response to several views put forward by energy experts this past week, who lambasted the draft IRP 2023, which was published by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy for public comment last week.
The draft energy blueprint envisions more than 100,000MW of new generation capacity being built by 2050, and proposes that a variety of technologies and fuels be considered to produce it, including solar, wind, nuclear and coal.
It maps out multiple scenarios, such as a “least cost” plan to produce 105,000MW of power and another that sees 166,00MW being generated from wind, solar, gas and battery storage.
The plan also leans heavily toward delaying the shutting down of coal power stations in South Africa, with the department arguing that, by delaying the process, energy can be secured for much longer.
However, the draft plan received a cold welcome from energy experts who have been tracking the power crisis for over a decade.
Energy expert Chris Yelland described the draft IRP as a “shoddy piece of work, lacking in maturity and depth”, with no economic or scenario modelling made available for scrutiny.
Academic and energy analyst Professor Anton Eberhard called the draft IRP “an admission of failure”, casting doubt over the department’s capacity and ability to follow through with a lot of its ambitious goals.
Without naming any critics specifically, Ramogopa said that commenting on the policy through the media was “insufficient” and “unhelpful”, noting that this does not qualify as a bona fide submission on the plan.
He said that comments should not be restricted to engagement with the media and that critics should engage with the official channels and make formal submissions on the plans.
The minister also clarified that the IRP is not an “intervention” to end load shedding but rather serves as a comprehensive plan to secure South Africa’s energy future.
He said the Energy Action Plan is an intervention that has been specifically crafted to address a problem (ie, load shedding) at a given time – and this plan is bearing fruit.
Interventions are working
Speaking to this, Ramokgopa said that the interventions to end load shedding are working – and despite the return of load shedding in January, small gains are being made all the time.
“To get to the situation where we have no load shedding, it starts with an hour, a day, a week, a year,” he said, adding that there have been marginal gains and marginal victories.
The minister said that the majority of generating units in Eskom’s fleet remain unreliable, and the power utility is managing this through planned maintenance. Repeat failures have been reduced through this initiative, he said.
However, he stressed that there will still be days of load shedding – but there will also be days with no load shedding.
“I cannot say there will be no load shedding going into the future; we have no control over some of the units – they are unreliable,” he said. But he added that through the return of major units (Koeberg, Kusile), Eskom has built up a buffer, which reduces the severity of load shedding.
He noted that in late 2022 / early 2023, load shedding was frequently at stages 5 and 6 – whereas outages have been kept to lower stages so far.
Projections for load shedding in 2024 reflect a similar story, showing that while outages are expected to persist for much of the year, the severity is anticipated to be much lower.
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