Here is the expected petrol price for December

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a volatile path for petrol and diesel prices heading into December.

The data from the CEF shows that petrol prices are slated for a small cut of between 5 and 16 cents per litre, while diesel prices are set for a hike of around 38 cents per litre.

Should current market conditions persist until the end of the month, this would lead to a mixed result for fuel.

However, markets have been highly volatile going into November, and analysts anticipate this volatility to persist for a while – meaning the final outcome could be quite different.

These are the expected changes:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 16 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 5 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 40 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 38 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 39 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has noted that its daily snapshots are not predictive and do not encompass other possible modifications, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.

The department determines these adjustments, considering various factors, at the end of the month.

Domestic fuel costs are primarily governed by the rand/dollar exchange rate and international oil prices. In South Africa, the fuel price is adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month based on these two factors.

For December’s changes, oil prices so far in November have decreased quite significantly since the start of the month—however, the rand has weakened significantly, working against motorists.

Rand

The rand has had a rough start to November, crumbling amid wider pressure on emerging markets as former US president Donald Trump scored a decisive victory in the 2024 elections.

In a clean sweep across the presidency, the senate and the House of Representatives, the republican party emerged as the clear winners in the election, even taking the popular vote—something Trump had never achieved before.

This places Trump and his “America first” policies in the driving seat of the US economy, along with his various loyalist appointees in the US federal government, which markets believe will be great for the US, but bad news for everyone else.

Economists anticipate that Trump’s policies will fuel inflation and lead to possible interest rate hikes further down the line, while the threat of a reignited trade war with China and mass deportations hang over global economics.

As a result, markets have become glaringly risk-averse, hitting emerging markets, including South Africa.

The rand moved from around R17.50 at the start of the month and broke through R18.00 to the dollar this week—ending up weakening even further to around R18.30 by the end of it. Economists say that the currency is likely to remain volatile.

This has pushed the rand from contributing to a small over-recovery in fuel prices at the start of November to an under-recovery of around 10 cents per litre by mid-month.

Oil

Oil prices have moved in the opposite direction to the rand in November, starting out the month relatively high and coming down since.

Oil started the month just under $75 a barrel and has come down to around $71 a barrel since.

According to Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, reports from the International Energy Agency point to the global oil market facing a 1 million barrel glut in 2025, with demand from China, the US and Japan lower than expected.

Weston said that, with crude priced towards the lower levels of its multi-month range and with potentially ugly (Trump-related) tariff negotiations likely to impact global growth and by extension the crude market, the view in oil market is for prices to go lower.

“The heavy hitters within OPEC+ are already running output levels well below capacity and would love to be in a position to lift their output run rate – but if the demand just isn’t there, amid an oversupplied oil market in 2025, then these nations are constrained and lack the capacity to increase barrels,” he said.

“The threat of production increases in the US makes this dynamic even more of a challenge, although the need for the incoming Trump administration to aggressively pursue this policy is diminished by lower prices and a disdain from US producers to increase supply from already record levels.

“The risk of a breakdown in the crude prices increases, and how OPEC+ reacts – should it play out – suggests crude should be more closely followed.”

The turn in oil prices has resulted in an over-recovery for petrol, between 13 and 23 cents per litre. However, there is still an under-recovery for diesel at around 28 cents per litre, but this is much lower than the 50+ cents per litre under-recovery at the start of the month.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect:

Read: Big petrol and diesel price win for South Africa