Final election poll shows the ANC could lose Gauteng and KZN

The Institute of Race Relations has published some of the findings of its final election poll before the 2019 elections, showing some bad news for the ANC.

The group’s final poll presents a snapshot of the national vote to Saturday 4 May – four days prior to the May 8 election.

On a 70% turnout –  the most likely figure based on previous elections – results show the ANC at 53%, followed by the DA at 24%, and the EFF at 14%.

Adding to the parties woes are possibilities of hung votes in both Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal, where the IRR poll shows the ANC losing its outright majority, barring any “last minute surge” in support.

“This is the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way and the other among around five to eight percent of black voters since September,” the IRR said.

While the DA has expressed concerns about holding the Western Cape, as part of a bid to get voters out to voting stations on the day, the IRR’s poll shows that the party will hold the province relatively comfortably.

It also noted that the DA is marginally up among black voters, but down among white voters, from 2014. The ANC is significantly down among coloured voters from 2014, it said.

“The EFF is up significantly relative to 2014. This will set up an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test,” the group said.

Based on the final poll (and a 70% voter turnout) this is the IRR’s final snapshot:

As will all pre-election polls, the IRR stressed that the results of its survey are not a prediction.

A caveat to the data is that it carries a margin of error, and serves only as a snapshot over the poll period.

“It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review,” it said.

“Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election.

“As you will see, there is some fluidity in the market, and the last few days will likely see some small movement. If history is a guide, it will be towards the bigger parties. From these numbers, anyone can draw a prediction should they wish. We leave the art of prediction up to you, the public.”

National vote data

Taking total votes into account, the IRR data changes somewhat, painting a worse outcome for the ANC and the DA, but benefitting the EFF.

The total votes are unadjusted for voter turnout and represent the raw data of the poll.

The graph below outlines all the poll results released in 2019, using unadjusted data.

Read: What a big loss for the ANC in the 2019 elections means for South Africa