70 ANC MPs could be out of a job – these are the predicted seats in the National Assembly

 ·31 May 2024

With over a third (66%) of the voting districts counted for the National Assembly, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), in collaboration with SABC news has published projections about this year’s election outcome,

The CSIR and SABC have collaborated on election coverage and predictions since 1999. The predications of the allocation of the 400 seats in the National Assembly based on an extrapolation of tallies released by electoral commission (IEC). 

“The CSIR/SABC Elections Prediction Model is a mathematical model, thus we cannot assume that past performance will guarantee similar results,” said the CSIR and SABC.

“Predictions at best are a scientific estimate of what will happen and not a guarantee of any particular outcome, [thus] the SABC cannot take responsibility for any unintended errors,” it added.

*Note – These are predictions before the end of the counting process, and not the final results.

CSIR and SABC predictions

The predictions see the incumbent African National Congress (ANC) take a massive knock, down 70 seats from 2019 to 160/400 seats. This would make it the first time since 1994 that the ANC loses its parliamentary majority.

The official opposition is predicted to still be the Democratic Alliance, up three seats from 2019 to 87.

Newcomer uMkhonto we Sizwe is predicted to make inroads, acquiring 58 seats just months after their formation.

Conversly, the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) are expected to drop six seats to get 38.

The Inkatha Freedom Party could pick up an additional three seats to get 17, while the Patriotic Alliance is expected to make their debut in Parliament with nine seats.

The Vryheidsfront Plus are predicted to get six seats, down from 10 in 2019, while ActionSA could make their parliamentary debut with five seats.

Parties that have long been in the national assembly, the African Christian Democratic Party and United Democratic Movement could see themselves each getting three seats.

Al-Jama-Ah, Build One South Africa, Rise Mzansi, the Pan Africanist Congress and Cape Coloured Congress could get 2 seats each, while GOOD and the United Africans Transformation could each see one seat.

To track the results and polling from the SABC and CSIR, it can be found here.

Read: How seats in the National Assembly will be allocated after all the votes are counted

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