2026 election results: First official scientific prediction has been published
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has published its first official prediction of the 2026 local government election results, indicating a sizeable loss for the ANC.
After 13% of the vote counted, the CSIR’s projection put the major parties at these levels:
- ANC at 31.7%
- DA at 25.8%
- MK at 9%
- EFF at 6%
- ActionSA at 5%
The CSIR’s projections are based on advanced statistical and mathematical techniques and have been used for more than two decades to predict the outcomes of South Africa’s elections.
Since its introduction during South Africa’s 1999 general elections, the model has been successfully used in every national and municipal election.
It has also established a strong track record of reliable forecasting.
Notably, the first prediction is not the last, as the group’s model continuously incorporates newly declared results, allowing its projections to be refined as counting progresses.
The CSIR’s election prediction model is based the analysis of historical voting behaviour patterns and an understanding of how voting district results are received and reported during the counting process.
By combining these, the model groups voting districts with similar characteristics using statistical clustering techniques, enabling it to generate projections before all districts have reported their results.
The CSIR said that the model has consistently demonstrated a high level of accuracy, often producing stable and representative projections once only a small percentage of voting districts have been declared.
“As more results become available, the predictions become increasingly precise, converging with the final election outcomes,” it said.
It should be noted that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) remains the sole authority responsible for the administration, verification and official declaration of election results.
The CSIR model provides only independent scientific forecasting.
| Party | 2021 Result | CSIR 2026 (First prediction) | Point Change (First prediction) | 2026 Current (23% counted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANC | 45.6% | 31.7% | -13.9 | 31.5% |
| DA | 21.7% | 25.8% | +4.1 | 30.0% |
| MK | – | 9.0% | +9.0 | 5.6% |
| EFF | 10.3% | 6.0% | -4.3 | 5.1% |
| ActionSA | 2.3% | 5.0% | +2.7 | 2.8% |
To keep on top of the vote counts as they happen, you can make use of the Newsday Election Results Portal, which gives a clear picture of the results on desktop and mobile.
The portal offers all election data since 1999, making it easy for visitors to track changes in support for different political parties.
The election results include those for municipalities, provincial legislatures, and the national assembly.
Using the interactive map, users can zoom in to a local government region to see the results for that municipality.
The portal will be updated in real time to keep visitors up to date with the latest results from South Africa’s 2026 local government elections.
At around 22% of the vote counted, the Newsday portal indicates a tight race between the ANC and the DA, with smaller parties split between 4% and 5.6%, nationally.
Across the major metros, it’s also a DA vs ANC battle, with the exception of Tshwane, where ActionSA currently leads the ANC, and the DA in third.
Visit the Newsday Election Results Portal here.
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