These 3 things have the biggest influence on your house price

 ·10 May 2017

Property is often included in an investment portfolio as it has a low correlation with other assets like bonds and equities and thus diversifies the risk in a portfolio, says Pam Golding Properties.

Regarded as having higher risk and return than bonds but lower than equities, property is favoured during times of economic and political uncertainty because it is a real, tangible asset, said the group’s senior research and market analyst, Sandra Gordon.

“Not only does it offer potential capital appreciation but also generates a steady income stream, which is particularly welcome during uncertain times.

“Current developments internationally raise questions about the outlook for global growth, trade, inflation and interest rates and, of course, safe haven currencies. These uncertainties are reinforcing perceptions of property’s role as a safe haven.

Gordon said that an extreme example of property as a safe haven is the surge in wealthy foreigners buying self-sufficient bolt-holes in New Zealand.

“While the country’s remoteness was previously seen as a weakness, in the current global environment of uncertainty its relative isolation is now perceived as a major strength,” the market researcher said.

Here in South Africa the Cabinet reshuffle and downgrade to junk status is causing significant upheaval which may impact on the local property market, Pam Golding said.

“Our housing market has been slowing for several years as it faces economic headwinds of subdued growth, rising inflation and interest rates – prompting some analysts to caution that property is not a good investment because, once adjusted for inflation, real prices are falling from year-earlier levels,” Gordon said.

However, she stressed that this is an over-simplification – as the regional housing markets have shown extremely divergent performances in recent years.

“This highlights the need to research before deciding what segment of housing market to invest in.”

According to Pam Golding Properties’ strategic partner, Savills, three metrics have the greatest influence on housing markets: demographics, affluence and availability of land or housing.

When all three factors are positive, growth in house prices will exceed the inflation rate -but, in the absence of one or more of these variables, markets are likely to stall or even decline, said Pam Golding.

“South Africa has a young population, with two-thirds not yet 34 years – which is the average age of a first-time buyer. This means this is going to be a major growth market over the next decade. The raising of the level at which transfer duty is payable to R900,000 means that housing is more affordable for the first time buyer,” said Gordon.

“When there is economic growth and job creation, there is generally a vibrant housing market. As populations urbanise, so cities are becoming increasingly independent of their countries. So if you wish to find a promising housing market, you need to identify a vibrant growth node.”

The analyst said that even though the country’s economy has been extremely subdued for several years now, there are several growth nodes in which activity remains particularly buoyant. Major metro markets are the dominant housing markets – with coastal markets currently leading the way.

Read: Expect banks to charge higher interest rates on your home loan in SA – expert

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