Zuma’s economic outlook for 2017 is way off
Speaking at the ANC’s 105th birthday celebrations at Orlando Stadium in Soweto, President Jacob Zuma has predicted a 2.9% growth forecast in 2017 – flying in the face of other financial forecasts.
This follows a predicted growth rate of 0.8% in 2017 by the International Monetary Fund while the South African Reserve Bank has expected a growth of around 1.2% over the course of the year.
Speaking to 702’s Xolani Gwala, Dr. Azar Jammine, Chief economist at Econometrix, said that Zuma was way off with his estimations, and that the only way the country would see such a large growth would be through a resurgence of commodities.
“I think we should see a figure somewhere between 1-2%. 2.9% is really over the top of most people’s forecast”, said Jammine. “There is no question that 2017 is likely to be volatile politically, especially in the run for the ANC’s elective conference in December”.
While political volatility is the biggest national factor inhibiting growth in the economy, Jammine noted it was more likely to be international markets that had the biggest effect on the rand.
Notably, an expected resurgence of the dollar combined with an increase of US interest rates will effect South African commodity prices driving down growth.
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